Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EST Fri Jan 08 2021

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 09 2021 - 00Z Tue Jan 12 2021


...Southern Rockies/Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A well-defined shortwave moving across Oregon this afternoon is
expected to dig southeast -- moving across the Great Basin and
into the Four Corners region on Saturday.  From there, the system
is expected to swing to the east -- moving into the southern
Rockies Saturday night and early Sunday.  Favorable forcing along
the left-exit region of the associated upper jet, along with low
level southeasterly flow across Texas will support developing
precipitation along the Colorado and New Mexico Rockies eastward
into the High Plains, including southwestern Kansas and the
Panhandle region by late Saturday.  Deep easterly flow focused
across northeastern New Mexico through the evening into the
overnight hours will likely help support periods of heavy snow
along the foothills and mountains, with WPC PWPF indicating
significant potential for local accumulations of 8-inches or more
across southern portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  As
the system continues to move east, precipitation will continue to
spread farther south and east across Texas on Sunday.  Thermal
profiles suggest precipitation beginning as all snow across much
of Panhandle Plains Sunday morning.  With ample moisture in place,
a period of strong forcing through the morning hours is expected
to support a stripe of heavy snows extending from the southern
Texas Panhandle into Northwest Texas, where widespread
accumulations of 4-inches, with locally heavier amounts, can be
expected.  Some of the heaviest storm accumulations are expected
to focus across the Lubbock region, where the latest WPC PWPF
shows significant probabilities for accumulations of 6-inches or
more.  Dynamic cooling is expected to help draw the rain-snow line
farther east across Northwest Texas into eastern Texas on Sunday. 
However, the current model consensus is for lighter accumulations
as boundary layer conditions become less favorable.  By late
Sunday, accumulating snows are expected to move into the ArkLaTex
region, with models starting to move into agreement on the
potential for a band of heavier amounts setting up across northern
Louisiana Sunday night.

Pereira