Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 314 AM EST Tue Jan 25 2022 Valid 12Z Tue Jan 25 2022 - 12Z Fri Jan 28 2022 ...Great Lakes/Northeast... Days 1-3... Broad cyclonic flow centered over Hudson Bay will favor punctuated bouts of shortwaves rotating through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northeast the next few days, with mainly light snow over a broad area but some focused areas of lake effect snow. Clipper will exit the Northeast early Day 1 with lake effect ending by early Day 2 as high pressure moves through the Midwest and winds become unfavorable. Favored areas on WNW winds will see several inches into early Wed. At that time, a cold front through southern Canada will promote warm advection across the western Lakes that sinks southeastward into Day 3. Amounts will be fairly light under a few inches. Three-day WPC probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow focused exclusively on lake effect snow areas. ...Central Rockies and High Plains... Days 1-3... Cold front that has already pushed into the Front Range will stall over the region today and promote an area of modest snowfall in eastern Colorado on easterly/upslope flow. Mid-level shortwave on the west side of the Rockies will continue to sink southward into AZ later today as heights in the mid-level stabilize and the moisture moves steadily southward into New Mexico. To the east, models continue to show a region of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis behind the front over parts of western KS where snowfall rates of 1"/hr are possible at times per the WPC Snowband Tool. Placement of this heavier axis remained somewhat elusive per recent CAM guidance wavering, but a consensus/HREF approach seemed reasonable. WPC probabilities for more than 4 inches of snow are high in western KS and northeastern NM where more than 6 inches is possible. There, synoptic lift combined with moderate upslope enhancement and periods of robust frontogenesis will drive locally heavy snow across the Sangre De Cristos. On Day 2, light snow and snow/rain mix will spread eastward into/across the TX Panhandle as the shortwave exits NM. Well to the north, next shortwave in the fast flow will drop into Montana with another round of light snow moving quickly southward through Colorado into Day 3. Amounts will be light -- generally 1-3 inches. For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent. Fracasso