Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
139 PM EST Sun Feb 06 2022

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 07 2022 - 00Z Thu Feb 10 2022

...Northeast and New England...
Days 1-2...

A modest but amplifying mid-level trough moving through the OH VLY
Monday will help intensify a wave of low pressure developing along
an inverted trough off the Southeast Coast. The guidance is
generally weaker today with this low as it moves northeast, as
instead of a single consolidated low pressure it has waves of low
pressure moving northeast and off the New England Coast. Despite
this, several waves of precipitation moving northward could
produce moderate to heavy snow, generally across NH/ME which will
be close enough to the low and cold enough for all snow. WPC
probabilities are high for more than 4 inches only in
north/central ME, with less accums of 2 inches or more extending
into southern VT and western MA.

South of the snow, some light freezing rain and/or freezing
drizzle is likely as light precip shifts northward into
sub-freezing surface temperatures, but the DGZ remains dry. The
guidance has a strong signal for very light accretions from NJ
northward through the Tri-State area of NY/NJ/CT and into central
MA, and light icing may impact the morning commute around NYC. WPC
probabilities for 0.01" of ice are as high as 30%.


The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Weiss