Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EST Wed Feb 09 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Feb 09 2022 - 12Z Sat Feb 12 2022

...Great Lakes...
Days 1-3...
Deep low pressure around Hudson Bay will direct a parade of
shortwave trough activity from the Gulf of Alaska, down the
Canadian Prairies, and through the Great Lakes through at least
this weekend. A wave currently over western Ontario will swing
east today before lifting north. Westerly snow belts in the U.P.
have moderate probabilities for over 4" today and in the Tug Hill
of NY Thursday.

The next system is currently entering the Gulf of Alaska and will
ride a 150+kt jet inland with the wave reaching southern Manitoba
by midday Thursday before tracking a little farther south than the
system today, perhaps crossing the U.P. itself. Deeper moisture
and stronger forcing will likely support more widespread snowfall
coverage with moderate Day 2 probabilities for over 4" across the
Arrowhead of MN, high probabilities on Day 2.5 over the western
U.P. and moderate over the eastern U.P. and northwestern L.P.


...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Days 1 and 3...
Northwesterly flow with embedded energy aloft is expected to
support periods of generally light precipitation to dive down the
northern High Plains today with moderate probabilities for over 4"
for the Black Hills.

A reinforcing trough dives down the Plains Friday/Friday night
with more moderate Day 2.5 probabilities for over 4" for the Black
Hills as well as the Bighorns.


For Days 1-3, the probability of significant icing is less than 10
percent.

Jackson