Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
432 PM EDT Mon Mar 14 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Mar 15 2022 - 00Z Fri Mar 18 2022

...Interior Northeast...
Days 1/2...

The impulse currently driving the snow bands over northern WI/MI
will shift some bands over far northern NY into VT this evening.
Then a stronger impulse shifts east from Lake Huron Tuesday with
some weak surface low development and banding a bit farther south.
12Z consensus has this secondary banding over Lake Ontario
Tuesday, shifting east across north-central New England Tuesday
night. Marginal thermals accompany both waves with accumulating
snow mostly limited to where decent precip rates develop due to
dynamic cooling. Day 1 WPC snow probabilities for over 4" are
limited to the northern Adirondacks and the Presidential Range in
NH for Day 1.5. Probabilities for over 2" do cover most of the far
northern New York west of Lake Champlain, spreading over the
higher terrain of northern VT/NH for Day 1.5.


...Pacific Northwest through the Rockies...
Days 1-3...

The active pattern continues in the Pacific Northwest with the
next wave reaching the shore late tonight and widespread moderate
precip in an atmospheric river crossing the WA/OR coasts later
this afternoon with mountain snows for the Cascades and Northern
Rockies through Tuesday. Snow levels will be elevated, ranging
from about 5000ft in WA to over 7000ft in CA and 5000 to 6000ft
over the northern Rockies. Day 1/1.5 WPC probabilities for over 6"
are  than 6 inches remain high for the WA Cascades and moderate
for the OR Cascades, and the northern Rockies of MT and ID. A
reinforcing trough digs over the southern Great Basin Wednesday
setting up lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains to
combine with high pressure shifting down the northern Rockies
Wednesday night to bring precip in a marginally cold profile to CO
Wednesday night, shifting into northeast NM Thursday. Day 3 snow
probabilities for over 6" are moderately high over the eastern
slopes of the CO Front Range, Palmer Divide, and down the Sangre
de Cristos into NM.

A weak wave reaching the Pacific Northwest Thursday with mainly
light snow above levels around 4000ft. Day 3 snow probabilities
for over 4" are low over the northern WA Cascades.


The probability for receiving at least 0.1" of freezing rain is
next to zero across the lower 48 Days 1-3.

Jackson