Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Tue Mar 22 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 23 2022 - 00Z Sat Mar 26 2022

...Great Lakes through the Northeast...
Days 1-3...

As a sprawling low lifts through the Plains this evening,
southerly flow will drive anomalously high moisture northward
through the Great Lakes. The combination of the warm nose reaching
the region as well as the closed low wobbling overheard will make
for a messy, long duration ptype scenario for potential of
freezing rain/rain but also accumulating snow and sleet. Marginal
surface temps and colder heights aloft as the closed low moves
overhead, with embedded pieces of vorticity, will create a mix of
ptypes. The greatest snowfall accumulations look to be favored for
the North Shore given strong easterly flow upsloping against the
terrain. Here, moderate to high probabilities of 6" or more exist
while across the U.P., 4" probabilities are slight to moderate.
While more uncertainties exist in the evolution and potential of
ice accumulation, there is a signal for some ice accumulations of
0.1", particularly for northern WI and L.P. of MI.

As the occluded low reaches the Great Lakes, its warm advection
wing of precipitation is expected to reach the Northeast late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Depending on the surface
temperatures, some freezing rain may develop particularly across
the elevation areas of the Catskills and Adirondacks of NY, Greens
of VT, MA Berkshires, and the Whites of NH/Maine. WPC ice
probabilities of at least 0.01" are high with moderate
probabilities of more substantial accumulations of 0.1".

Taylor