Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 14 2022 - 12Z Mon Oct 17 2022

Days 1-2...

The probability of at least 4 inches of snow is less than 10
percent.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Day 3...
...Upper Great Lakes...
A deep upper-level trough is forecast to persist across the
central to eastern U.S. through the weekend.  On Sunday, the model
consensus shows an amplifying shortwave diving south through
central Canada, with a closed center developing over the Upper
Great Lakes Sunday night into early Monday.  Deep northerly flow
with 850mb temps dropping below -10C is expected to help support
lake effect snow south of Lake Superior overnight Sunday into
Monday.  Probabilistic guidance indicates that accumulating snow
of an inch or two is likely, with a slight threat for locally
heavier amounts of four inches or more across parts of the western
U.P. of Michigan into northern Wisconsin by Monday morning. 

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Pereira