Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
331 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 15 2022 - 00Z Tue Oct 18 2022

Days 1-2...

The probability of at least 4 inches of snow is less than 10
percent.

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Day 3...
...Upper Great Lakes...
Current upper low over the Great Lakes will lift into Canada, but
another shortwave over the Canadian Archipelago will dive
southeastward this weekend into the area by Sunday night into
Monday. This will bring lower heights (-2 to -3 sigma) and
temperatures (-10C at 850mb which is about -2 sigma for this time
of year) across still mild Lake Superior temperatures (+8 to 10C),
supporting lake effect snow (or rain/snow where low-level temps
are enough above freezing) to especially the U.P. of Michigan.
Surface temperatures will be marginal, but several inches will be
possible overnight Sunday into and through Monday. Guidance was in
good agreement overall with sufficient QPF but this will be
tempered by modest SLRs and some initial melting on the warmer
ground. Moderate probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow and
low probabilities for at least 8 inches, centered over the Huron
Mountains. 

The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.

Fracasso