Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 AM EST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 12Z Wed Mar 06 2024 - 12Z Sat Mar 09 2024 ...California/Southwest and the Intermountain West... Days 1-2... Remnant axis of moisture from NorCal eastward to the western WY ranges will squeeze out several more inches of snow for the higher elevations today before finally ending into Thursday. An upper low west of California this morning will move into the CA Deserts by early Thursday, spreading some light to modest snow to the higher peaks outside Los Angeles including around Big Bear Lake with snow levels as low as about 5000ft. By D2, the weakly closed low will move through AZ with some snow for the Mogollon Rim and into the San Juans. ...Central/Southern Rockies onto the Plains... Days 2-3... Continuing the path of the mid-level low out of AZ and into NM, height falls will track eastward across the TX Panhandle late Friday as a 150kt jet streak lifts through West Texas. Surface weakness and marginal temperatures in the CO Plains will be met by an advancing cold front from the north as high pressure builds into the northern Plains from Canada. NE to E flow surface flow will help drive moisture into the region from the western Gulf, giving way to an upslope snow especially in the terrain. Modest to perhaps locally heavier snow is forecast for the Raton Mesa/Sangre de Christos where WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches are >50%. As height falls reach the Plains (~100W), weaker areas of low pressure may form and lift northeastward, promoting bands of light to moderate snow on the northern side of the precipitation shield, generally from southeastern WY eastward across Nebraska. There, WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow remain low -- below 30%. ...Northern Plains... Day 1... A compact mid-level low moving into southern Saskatchewan this morning will skirt the northern ND border today before lifting back into Manitoba tonight. Surface low pressure near the Black Hills will move northeastward today into far northwestern MN tonight, helping to spread snowfall across ND and far northwestern MN. Temperatures will be cold enough to the northwest of the low track, but the consensus has shifted the heavier QPF just a bit northward since yesterday. Nevertheless, broad WAA will drive some light to modest snows over northern ND where WPC probabilities for at least 4 inches are moderate (40-70%). ...Northern New England... Days 1-2... System over the Southeast today will lift northeastward along and just off the East Coast toward the 40/70 benchmark by early Thursday, with an expanding precipitation shield out ahead of the low. Over Canada, a cold front will push its way into northern New England today with slightly colder air that will be marginally conducive for wintry precipitation later today but trend more favorable overnight, aided by cold air drainage down the St. Lawrence Valley. Rain will change to snow and/or a wintry mix from north to south, with bands of snow over central/northern Maine on the edge of the precip shield. Guidance has hinted at a more defined mix zone of sleet/freezing rain (more or less along I-95/Rt 1 north of Augusta) with some probability of ~0.10" icing depending on system evolution which remains a bit uncertain. For now, WPC probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow are moderate (40-70%) across central/northern Maine. For days 1-3, the probability of significant icing (>0.25") is less than 10 percent. Fracasso