Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 PM EST Mon Mar 05 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid Mar 06/0000 UTC thru Mar 07/0000 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1

...Northern Plains/Great Lakes...

The negatively-tilted upper low currently centered over the
northern plains is forecast to slide east-southeast into the mid
Mississippi valley as it comes under the influence of a second
closed system rotating south across western Ontario on Tue. 
Overall, models are in good agreement through the period, showing
the system gradually weakening on Tue.  Guidance continues to
indicate two areas of heavier precipitation -- one within the area
of enhanced upper divergence ahead of the low and the other along
a trailing surface boundary extending from the low back into the
Dakotas.  WPC QPF generally followed a blend of the GFS and the
HREF.  Refer to the WPC Winter Weather products for details
concerning additional heavy snow potential across this region.

...Gulf Coast/Deep South/Southeast...

Cold front trailing the previously noted low is forecast to drop
southeast from eastern OK and central TX toward the western Gulf
Coast and lower Mississippi valley this afternoon.  Moisture
increasing ahead of the front through the afternoon into the
evening hours (PWs climbing in excess of 1.5 inches from central
Mississippi to the lower Texas coast), along with some moderate
instability early on, will support showers and thunderstorms,
producing moderate to locally heavy accumulations across the
region this afternoon and evening.  Rainfall rates are expected to
diminish as instability wanes during the late evening into the
overnight hours.  Could see an increase in rainfall rates with the
return of daytime heating, raising the potential for locally heavy
amounts as the front pushes further east across the Southeast and
eastern Gulf Coast region Tue afternoon and evening.  WPC QPF
relied in large part on the HREF across this region.   

Elsewhere, no hydrologically significant precipitation is expected.

Pereira