Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EST Sat Mar 10 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid Mar 11/0000 UTC thru Mar 12/0000 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1...

...Lower MS valley into the TN Valley and Southeast...

A heavy rainfall event remains on track late today into early
Sunday across portions of AR into northern MS/AL/GA, although 
some model spread remains (especially with the global guidance)
with regards to the exact axis and magnitude of highest totals.
The GFS and NAM remain on the northern and more progressive
periphery of the model spread, especially when compared to the
ECMWF and bevy of high-res CAMs (including the ARW, ARW2, HREF
mean). This evening and overnight, we will begin to see better
mid/upper level forcing move back into the lower MS valley. In
response should see an uptick in 850 mb moisture transport and a
tightening of the low level west to east stationary boundary. The
combination of this increased synoptic support and low level
moisture convergence should result in an expansion of convective
activity by this evening across AR/MS/AL along/near the
aforementioned boundary. Models all seem to be in agreement with
this evolution occurring. Considering the quasi-zonal flow aloft
and largely parallel frontal/thickness structure at low levels,
the threat for training convection overnight across the
aforementioned region remains elevated, given the uptick in w to
wsw low-level inflow and (thus) increased upwind propagation.
Refer to the latest Excessive Rainfall Discussion or ERD for
further details.

PWAT values are only marginally above average...and not really at
the magnitude you would like to see for efficient heavy rainfall.
Although the values approaching 1.2" would still support the
potential for some 1-2" an hour rainfall rates. 850 mb moisture
transport is also not as strong as you would normally see for
excessively heavy QPF amounts. Instability is not forecast to be
that high...although does look we initially see enough surface
based instability over AR for development...and enough elevated
instability further east to sustain convection into MS/AL. Thus
there will be enough increased mid/upper level forcing and
instability present to allow for the development of robust
convection by this evening. While the magnitude of 850 mb moisture
transport is not great (as mentioned above), the corridor of
enhanced transport is broad. This thus supports an elongated axis
of moisture convergence, which should be supportive of some west
to east training and repeat convection. It is this factor that
will likely result in a corridor of 2-3" (locally higher) of
rainfall and the development of at least some flash flood threat
into tonight (despite the marginal pwats/instability).

As mentioned above, models are in better agreement with this
convection and thus QPF totals through the day 1 period. Our axis
of 1-3" stretches from central AR east into portions of
central/northern MS/AL into northern GA (highest in MS/AL where
some training is most likely). The latest WPCQPF noted a slight
northward shift from the previous forecast. As far as the
magnitude goes, again we leaned more towards the high res
guidance, especially a blend of the WRF-ARW, ARW2, and HREF mean,
which remain consistently higher than the global guidance. This
peaks amounts in the 2-3" range (although locally could see
upwards of 4"). Amounts much higher than this seem unlikely at
this point given marginal PWATs/moisture transport and the
progressive nature of the system.


...South and Central Florida...

The presence of a mid level wave and the development of impressive
upper level divergence expand the widespread convective over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico eastward towards central and southern
Florida towards evening. In general think the activity will be in
a weakening state as it moves ashore given limited instability.
However appears increasingly likely that at least some steady
showers, and possibly a few embedded heavier convective cores,
will move across southern Florida through ~ 06Z.

WPC followed a multi model blend for QPF across this
region...which is a decent increase from our previous forecast.
For now kept areal averaged amounts below 1"...but as mentioned
above will need to monitor trends as some chance we see locally
higher totals.


...Southwest into the Southern Rockies...

A wave moving into the southwest will bring a broad area of
precipitation into southern CA and inland across the remainder of
the southwest and into the southern Rockies through the day 1
period. An impressive plume of moisture is noted, with PWAT values
at or near climatological max values for this time of year over
the Southwest. This combined with the wave/left exit region upper
jet streak forcing certainly supports an expansive area of light
to moderate precipitation mounts. Limiting factors will be the
flatness of the wave, which is not really supportive of heaver
rates, and also low level wind fields that are not all that
anomalous. So while we certainly will see some orographic
enhancement over southern CA, not expecting rates to be that
impressive. Current indications are for rainfall rates to
generally peak within the 0.25"-0.35" range within an hour across
portions of the southern CA terrain this afternoon and evening.

Hurley/Chenard