Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 234 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion Valid Mar 25/0000 UTC thru Mar 26/0000 UTC Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr Day 1 ...Southeast/southern Appalachians into South/southern Plains... The vigorous, compact upper disturbance over the mid MS valley and western OH valley this afternoon will slide south and east toward the southern Appalachians, through the Southeast and off the Southeast coast over the next 24 hrs. However, a short wave diving through the nern quad of the country will sharpen the upper-level confluence and overall weaken the dynamic short wave. Thus still anticipate a healthy precip shield with decent rates to push through eastern KY/TN into swrn VA/western NC and nern GA before zipping through the Southeast. The guidance captures this scenario quite well and provided confidence in carrying 1-2 inch areal avg qpf amounts with locally higher values over the southern Appalachians, due to favorable orographics. Meanwhile, the associated surface cold front will eventually stall and become quasi-stationary across the South into the southern Plains Sun afternoon. This could trigger isolated showers/storms across the region, especially across northern TX into OK as lower upper heights from the west begin to reach the southern tier of the country. Overall WPC followed a model blend for QPF, which included global models and hi-res guidance. ...West into Upper Midwest... A couple of different upper-level systems will keep the West unsettled Sat evening through Sun. One upper-level short wave across the northern Rockies and inter-mountain West will lift north and east into central Canada and clip the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Overall qpf amounts should be relatively light with this feature, though global models and hi-res guidance capture a streak of elevated moisture and an active low level jet for enhanced qpf amounts of likely rain mixed with snow across eastern ND. Meanwhile upstream, a closed mid to upper low over the eastern Pacific will move through northern CA and OR to reach the inter-mountain West/Great Basin. Marginal Pac moisture transport is expected with this system but expect the favored terrain and especially the northern CA coast into the northern Sierra with enhanced onshore flow and qpf amounts. Overall WPC stayed very close to the operational GFS and ECMWF on mass fields and qpf amounts. Musher