Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EDT Fri Mar 30 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid Mar 30/1200 UTC thru Mar 31/1200 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1

Eastern seaboard into northern to central Florida

The elongated mid to upper level trof initially stretching through
the mid to lower MS Valley will be pressing steadily eastward day
1---pushing the associated surface frontal boundary eastward off
the eastern seaboard and southward through northern to central FL.
 Given the overall progressive nature of this boundary---the model
consensus is for generally light to moderate precip totals despite
the above average pw values expected ahead of the front.  The best
chances for any heavy precip totals appears to be over north
Florida where convection may remain defined in a region of
favorable right entrance region jet dynamics early in the day 1
time period. 

Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes

A well defined surface wave expected to move east southeastward
from the northern high plains into the Upper MS Valley day 1 along
the strong arctic frontal boundary draped across these regions. 
This low will support strong isentropic lift ahead of it and the
potential for a stripe of heavy snows from central to northern ND
into north-central MN---northern WI and  the western U.P. of MI. 
There is fairly good model qpf agreement with the above described
axis---leading to a fairly high confidence forecast.  See the
latest QPFHSD for additional winter weather information across
this area.

Northern Rockies

In the wake of the area of low pressure moving eastward from the
Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley---the arctic front will
push southward Friday and become banked up against the Northern
Rockies.  Post frontal upslope flow will support moderate to
locally heavy snows across portions of the Northern Rockies from
north-central to northwest MT into south central to northwest MT.

Oravec