Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid Mar 31/1200 UTC thru Apr 01/1200 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1

Upper MS Valley---Upper Great Lakes into southeast Canada

Overall good agreement in the latest guidance with the east
northeast push of a well defined surface low from the Upper MS
Valley into the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday---across southeast
Ontario into southern QB Saturday night into early Sunday.  Strong
isentropic lift ahead of this low will continue to support heavy
snow potential day 1 from northeast WI...across most of the U.P.
of MI into the northern portion of the L.P. of MI...northeast
across southeast portions of Ontario into southern QB.  See the
latest QPFHSD for additional winter weather information across
this region.

Northeast...lower Great Lakes...central Appalachians--OH
Valley...lower AR/lower MS Valleys

The trailing cold front from the Upper MS Valley-Upper Great Lakes
low pressure will be moving quickly south through the Central to
Southern Plains...southeastward from the Upper MS Valley...into
the mid MS Valley...through the lower Great Lakes...OH Valley and
into the northeast.  Precip along and ahead of this front should
increase with time as pw values rise in the vicinity of the front
during the day 1 period.  The fast movement of the front will
remain the greatest detriment to any heavy totals---with generally
moderate totals depicted from the Northeast...lower Great
Lakes...central Appalachians...OH Valley into the lower AR/lower
MS Valley region.  Model consensus for the greatest precip
potential along the front is over portions of the lower AR/lower
MS river valleys from eastern OK into northern to central AR where
areal average .25-50" totals are possible.

Lee of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains

Shortwave energy moving east southeastward across the Northern to
Central Rockies into the central Plains will enhance isentropic
lift over the arctic air entrenched over the plains.  This will
support an area of accumulating snows pushing eastward Saturday
afternoon/evening from the lee of the Northern to Central Rockies
into the Central Plains.  Model consensus is for moderate to heavy
snow potential from southeast WY/far northeast CO into southwest
Nebraska.  See the latest QPFHSD for additional winter weather
information across this region.

Oravec