Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Mon Apr 02 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid Apr 02/1200 UTC thru Apr 03/1200 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1

Coastal northern Mid-Atlantic---Long Island---southern New England

The fast moving area of height fall supporting the broad area of
precipitation from the central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic
early Monday morning will continue to press quickly eastward and
off the northern Mid Atlantic coast early Sunday---passing then to
the south of New England by Monday afternoon.  Strong isentropic
lift ahead of these height falls will continue to support a
concentrated region of moderate to heavy precipitation intensity
across far southern New England/Long Island Monday morning.  The
expected fast eastward movement will keep precip values generally
in the moderate range of .10-25"+.  Early spring accumulating
snows possible across these areas.  See the latest QPFHSD for
additional winter weather information.

Northern Plains---Upper MS Valley---Upper Great Lakes

The strong closed low moving into the Pacific Northwest this
morning will be pressing east southeastward across the Northern
Rockies Monday and into the northern high plains Monday
night-early Tuesday.  These height falls will strengthen
isentropic lift to the north of the arctic frontal boundary
forecast to lie from the lee of the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains.  This will support increasing overrunning snows
developing across a fairly large region from the northern Plains
into the Upper MS Valley and upper Great Lakes region day 1.  The
model qpf axes have come into better agreement this period---after
showing some differences with the latitude of the max axis in
previous model cycles.  Model consensus is for .25-.50" areal
average liquid equivalents with moderate to locally heavy snow
potential across these regions. See the latest QPFHSD for
additional winter weather information.

OH Valley

A second max precip area ahead of the strong height falls moving
into the northern Plains is expected to develop along and north of
the warm front extending east from the associated deepening low
over the Central Plains.  Strengthening southwesterly low level
flow intersecting this front that is forecast to be moving
northeastward through the Mid MS Valley-OH Valley region will
support increasing overrunning rains along and to the north of the
OH Valley.  This strengthening inflow into the front will raise pw
values to 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean to the north of
this boundary---supporting potential for widespread moderate to
locally heavy precip totals. 

Oravec