Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 AM EDT Sun May 06 2018 Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion Valid May 06/1200 UTC thru May 07/1200 UTC Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr Day 1 ...Outer Banks of NC... The heavy rains blossoming along the NC coast early this morning will persist through the morning hours of Sunday as the very anomalous to near record pw values continue to affect this region. Very favorable right entrance region jet dynamics from the jet across the northeast will continue to enhance lift along the NC coast in this anomalous pw axis. Additional 1"+ totals possible over the Outer Banks this morning before the heavy rains push offshore late morning into early afternoon. ...Central Appalachians---Northern Mid Atlantic into the Northeast... The upper trof moving through the TN Valley into the Central Appalachians early Sunday morning will be pushing across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and then shearing across southern New England Sunday night-early Monday. An area of moderate to heavy precip expected to the northeast to this trof from the Central Appalachians into the Northern Mid-Atlantic----eastern NY state and central to southern New England in pw values 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean. WPC day 1 qpf followed the href mean for details to mitigate the model to model and run to run variability across these areas. ...Lower Great Lakes---OH Valley---TN Valley into the Lower MS Valley... A west to east oriented surface front will be dropping southward day 1 from the Lower Great Lakes into the OH Valley--TN Valley and Lower MS Valley. Not a lot of confidence with qpf details in what will be a scattered convective pattern along and ahead of this front with the latest model guidance showing a lot of spread with their respective qpfs. Given the uncertainties with details---areal average totals were kept on the light to moderate side with potential for locally heavier totals where convection does maximize. ...Florida... The surface cold front across the Southeast early this morning will be pressing south through northern to central Florida day 1. With much above average pw values already in place from the recent northwest surge of tropical pws across the peninsula---moderate to heavy rains possible from expected enhancing convection Sunday afternoon ahead of this front over central to south Florida. With the low level winds out of the west and southwest ahead of this front---convection that does form will likely maximize along the east central to southeast coastal areas. ...Pacific Northwest---Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies... Northeast Pacific trof moving into Northern California this morning are expected to track northeastward across the Pacific Northwest---Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies day 1. Strong upper difluence ahead of these height falls will support increasing shower activity this afternoon over northeast Oregon/southeast Washington---central to northern ID---spreading into northwest Montana Sunday night/early Monday. The strong dynamics in a region of much above average pw values---2 to 3+ standard deviations above the mean---will support moderate to heavy precip totals. This rainfall potential along with melting snows will result in result in rising stream flows. No changes are planned to the marginal risk area on the excessive rainfall potential outlook for the 12 UTC Sunday to 12 UTC Monday time period over northern ID into northwest MT. Oravec