Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EDT Mon May 07 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid May 07/1200 UTC thru May 08/1200 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1

...Central to Southern Appalachians...

The mean mid to upper level eastern trof will remain centered
across the central to southern Appalachians day 1.  Increasing
instability underneath this trof---mu cape values 500+ j/kg-- will
support scattered diurnal showers through the central to southern
Appalachians Monday afternoon into Monday evening.  Light to
moderate precip totals in the .10-.25" range depicted from western
NC/northeast TN---Southwest VA---central to eastern WV into far
western MD and far southwest PA.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...

Height falls that moved into the Northern Rockies early Monday
morning will be pressing eastward across the Northern Plains day
1.  Well defined upper difluence ahead of these height falls will
support continued fairly organized precipitation over the Northern
Rockies in the vicinity of northern ID into northwest MT Monday
morning with .25-.50"+ totals possible.  As this well defined
upper difluence pushes eastward Monday...scattered convection
should increase through the Northern Plains in a region of
strengthening low level southerly flow and increasing pw
values--up to 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above the mean.  While
models do show a lot of spread with the qpf details---there is
general agreement on potential for .25-.50"+ precip totals across
the Northern Plains from northeast MT into large portions of ND
and SD.

Oravec