Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018


Prelim Day 1 QPF Discussion
Valid May 16/1200 UTC thru May 17/1200 UTC
Reference AWIPS Graphics under...Precip Accum - 24hr


Day 1...


...Mid-Atlantic/Central and Southern Appalachians...

Southerly flow along the western periphery of the Bermuda high and
ahead of a weakening trough lifting out of the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will continue to channel deep moisture northward through
the region.  This moisture along with weak mid-level energy
lifting out ahead of the trough is expected to support some
orographically enhanced rainfall totals along the eastern slopes
of the southern to central Appalachians.  Guidance shows a fairly
good signal for south to north oriented training convection
producing some locally heavy amounts along the favored terrain
from far northeast Georgia and western North Carolina to at least
as far north as southwest Virginia later today.  As energy
continues to lift north, weak surface to low level wave
development will enhance the low level moisture convergence, which
along with some support from the right-entrance region of the
upper jet, may generate another round of heavy rains this
afternoon and evening from central and eastern Virginia to along a
stationary boundary draped across the northern Mid-Atlantic. 

Pereira