US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EST Mon Jan 07 2019
 
Valid Thursday January 10 2019 - Monday January 14 2019
 
Hazards:
Heavy precipitation across portions of California and the Southwest, Fri-Sun, Jan 11-Jan 13.
Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and 
the Tennessee Valley, Thu-Fri, Jan 10-Jan 11.
Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Fri-Sun, Jan 
11-Jan 13.
Heavy snow across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley, Fri, 
Jan 11.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and 
the Ohio Valley.
Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast.
High winds across portions of California, Fri-Sun, Jan 11-Jan 13.
Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Jan 12-Jan 14.
High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Thu, Jan 10.
Much below normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Jan 10-Jan 11.
 
Detailed Summary:

The active weather pattern continues across the West Coast in the medium range period. Multiple 
systems will impact particularly California from Friday, January 11 - Sunday, January 13. These 
systems will bring an increase of heavy rain and higher elevation snow. The Sierra Nevada mountain 
range can expect heavy snow especially during this time period. High winds along the California 
coast will also be a concern as these storm systems move onshore. 

A mid-level disturbance is expected to approach the southern Plains by Thursday, January 10 and 
continue moving eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic in the coming days. The signal for heavy rainfall 
is apparent--and expect this to develop on January 10 and by the 11th, shift toward Southeast 
Texas/eastern Oklahoma and even into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast. From January 
12 and 13, models begin to differ on how they handle precipitation. The GFS has been more 
aggressive bringing heavy rainfall into the eastern portions of the Southeast and snow/ice in the 
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. However, the ECMWF still continues to be on the more conservative side. 
Thus, opted out of highlighting this on our charts but in the coming days when there is more 
consensus, this could be a hazard worth highlighting. Additionally, the GFS and ECWMF both agree 
over the Missouri/Arkansas area getting snow on the 11th. 

Alaska is heading into both a cold and wet pattern through this forecast period. Multiple occluded 
systems moving from the Aleutians and into the Gulf of Alaska could bring heavy precipitation 
across portions of Southeast Alaska. Moreover, anomalously cold temperatures nearing 30 degrees 
below average is expected for western Alaska on January 10 and 11. Finally, high winds nearing 50 
knots is possible for the western Aleutian Islands with an incoming occluded system. 

Reinhart