US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019
 
Valid Sunday February 03 2019 - Thursday February 07 2019
 
Hazards:
Heavy precipitation possible across the upper Great Lakes, Mon, Feb 4.
Heavy precipitation across western California together with heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada, 
Sun-Mon, Feb 3-Feb 4.
Heavy precipitation across the lower Great Lakes and northern Maine, Thu, Feb 7.
Heavy rain possible from the interior Deep South across the lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, and into the southern Appalachians, Wed-Thu, Feb 6-Feb 7.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and south of Chicago, Illinois.
High winds across portions of the Southern Rockies into the central and southern High Plains, 
Sun-Tue, Feb 3-Feb 5.
Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, all of 
northern Plains into the central Plains, Sun-Thu, Feb 3-Feb 7.
Much below normal temperatures across southeastern Alaska, Sun, Feb 3.

 
Detailed Summary:

Much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation will become milder to much milder than normal this 
weekend as an upper-level ridge propagates eastward across the region.  The exception will be in 
the northern Plains where the next surge of arctic air is expected to arrive.  In the mean time, a 
Pacific front associated with a weakening cyclone is forecast to bring widespread mixed 
precipitation across much of the western U.S.  These three synoptic features are forecast to merge 
over the central Plains on Monday where a low pressure system is forecast to form.  Models are in 
better agreement on taking the cyclone center northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes Monday 
night.  There is increasing confidence that the cyclone will intensify and possibly bringing high 
winds with heavy snow/mixed precipitation Monday and Monday night across the upper Great Lakes.  
Some wintry precipitation is expected for interior New England before a warm front changes the 
precipitation to rain Tuesday morning.

Farther south, moisture lingering near the central Gulf coast along a stationary front is forecast 
to drift northward and begin to merge with a trailing arctic cold front associated with the 
intensifying cyclone over the upper Great Lakes Monday night.  The best chance of rain is forecast 
to persist over the interior Deep South through Tuesday as the next Pacific system moves across the 
western U.S.  This Pacific system is expected to extend the unsettled weather across the western 
U.S. through Tuesday before exiting the Rockies into the central Plains Tuesday night.  This will 
re-energize the moisture already in place over the interior Deep South and begins to trigger the 
intensification of the next cyclone along the arctic front over the central Plains on Wednesday.  
Models shows some uncertainties regarding the track and intensity of this system but they indicate 
decent certainty that an intensifying cyclone will bring another round of wintry precipitation 
across the Midwest into the Great Lakes Wednesday night, possibly into interior New England early 
on Thursday.

A significant warm trend is expected for the eastern two-thirds of the country through the weekend 
lasting into the middle of next week along the East Coast.  The warming will be most dramatic 
across the upper Midwest where readings were near their all-time record lows recently but are 
expected to climb to more than 20 degrees above normal by Monday afternoon.  Dense fog could 
develop as a result resulting in poor visibility.

In southeast Alaska, much colder than normal temperatures are expected to abate by early next week. 
 Model ensembles are indicating decent Pacific cyclones moving across the Aleutians into the Bering 
Sea early to middle of next week but confidence is not high enough to warrant significant waves and 
high winds alerts for these areas at this time.

Kong