US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EST Tue Feb 05 2019
 
Valid Friday February 08 2019 - Tuesday February 12 2019
 
Hazards:
Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio 
Valley, Sun-Tue, Feb 10-Feb 12.
Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley, Tue, Feb 12.
Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Sun, Feb 10.
Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern 
Plains, Fri, Feb 8.
Freezing rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Fri, Feb 8.
Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio 
Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.
High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, 
the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Fri, Feb 8.
Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the 
Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, and the Pacific Northwest, Fri-Tue, Feb 8-Feb 12.
High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon, Feb 11.
High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Aleutians, Sat-Sun, Feb 9-Feb 10.
and Mon-Tue, Feb 11-Feb 12.
 
Detailed Summary:

A synoptic pattern that favors mild temperatures along the East Coast and arctic air intrusion over 
the Northern Plains will support a general storm track from the Central Plains toward the Great 
Lakes through next Tuesday.  This will promote wintry weather from the Northern Plains to the Great 
Lakes, and heavy rain from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. The first of such storms 
is expected to move from the Midwest into the Great Lakes on Thursday.  There appears to be enough 
model support for heavy snow to impact the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes 
through early on Friday, with a zone of freezing rain and sleet possible across the Middle 
Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes.  Arctic air from the Plains will then usher into the East Coast 
during the weekend.  The combination of a strong arctic high pressure system building in behind the 
departing storm across the Great Lakes could bring high winds from the Northern /Central Plains 
eastward to the Lower Great Lakes Friday.  Much below normal temperatures will continue across the 
Northern Plains through next Tuesday.  The arctic air will initially extend farther into the 
interior Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, northern part of the Central Plains and the Upper 
Midwest on Friday.

Meanwhile, moisture surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico together with strong upper-level 
dynamics will support the possibility of heavy rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio 
Valley Thursday and Friday as a strong cold front approaches. Very mild temperatures will spread 
eastward from the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley into much of the eastern U.S. through Friday 
ahead of the cold front.  Another arctic front is forecast to form across the Central Plains by 
Friday into Saturday.  The next low pressure system will appear to develop along this arctic front 
on Sunday into Monday.  Southerly flow from the Gulf will once again bring increasing moisture and 
mild temperatures from the Gulf into the South and Southeast. The Lower and Middle Mississippi 
Valley will once again appear to be the focus for another round of heavy rainfall ahead of the 
arctic cold front and the developing low pressure system.

The western U.S. should see heavy snow moving across the Sierra Nevada Friday night into the 
weekend as a couple of energetic upper troughs move across the southwestern U.S. Temperatures will 
be colder than normal over much of the western U.S. through next Monday.

In Alaska, deep low pressure in the Bering Straits on Saturday and again on Monday into Tuesday 
will produce strong wind of 50 knots or more and high seas over 20 feet or greater over parts of 
the Aleutian Islands .

Ziegenfelder