US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Thu Feb 07 2019
 
Valid Sunday February 10 2019 - Thursday February 14 2019
 
Hazards:
Heavy rain across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Tue-Wed, Feb 12-Feb 13.
and Thu, Feb 14.
Heavy rain across portions of California and the Southwest, Thu, Feb 14.
Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, 
the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Tue, Feb 10-Feb 12.
Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central 
Appalachians, Tue-Wed, Feb 12-Feb 13.
Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, 
the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Pacific Northwest, 
Mon-Tue, Feb 11-Feb 12.
Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, the Northern Great Basin, and 
the Southwest, Thu, Feb 14.
Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, the Great Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, 
Tue-Wed, Feb 12-Feb 13.
Heavy snow across portions of the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Feb 10-Feb 11.
Flooding possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle 
Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.
Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Great Lakes.
Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the 
Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, and the Pacific Northwest, Sun-Thu, Feb 10-Feb 14.
High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Feb 12-Feb 13.
High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Feb 13-Feb 14.
High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon, Feb 11.
 and Wed-Thu, Feb 13-Feb 14.
High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Feb 11-Feb 12.
and Thu, Feb 14.
 
Detailed Summary:

A synoptic pattern favors mild temperatures along the East Coast and arctic air intrusion over the 
Northern Plains will support a general storm track from the Central Plains toward the Great Lakes 
through next Thursday. This will promote wintry weather from the Northern Plains to the Great 
Lakes, and heavy rain from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Arctic air from the 
Plains will then usher into the East Coast, as cold high pressure from West-Central Canada moves 
southeastward to the Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Much below normal temperatures will continue 
across the Northern Plains through next Thursday.

Meanwhile, moisture surging northward from the Gulf of Mexico together with strong upper-level 
dynamics will support the possibility of heavy rain over parts of the Northeast on Tuesday into 
Wednesday as the strong cold front approaches.  The next low pressure system will develop along 
this arctic front on Tuesday over the Middle Mississippi Valley that will move northeastward to the 
Great Lakes by Wednesday. Southerly flow from the Gulf will once again bring increasing moisture 
and mild temperatures from the Gulf Coast States to the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. The 
Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will 
once again appear to be the focus for heavy rainfall ahead of the arctic cold front and the 
developing low pressure system.

The Western U.S. should see heavy snow moving across the Sierra Nevada Thursday a couple of 
energetic upper troughs move across the southwestern U.S.. Temperatures will be colder than normal 
over much of the Western U.S. through Wednesday.

In Alaska, deep low pressure in the Bering Straits on Tuesday will produce strong wind of 50 knots 
or more and high seas over 20 feet or greater over parts of the Aleutian Islands.  High wind of 50 
knots or greater will also impact the Northwest Coast of Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula to Valdez 
on Wednesday into Thursday.

On another note, a developing upper-level low north of Hawaii on Saturday will aid in forming a 
surface low and front by Saturday that will move just north of the Islands by Sunday. The low will 
aid in developing waves up to 33 feet and strong wind of 30 to 40 knots Sunday into Monday. Can 
anyone say surf is up?

Ziegenfelder