US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EST Fri Feb 08 2019
 
Valid Monday February 11 2019 - Friday February 15 2019
 
Hazards:
Heavy rain across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Tue-Fri, Feb 12-Feb 15.
Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central 
Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern 
Appalachians, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Wed, Feb 11-Feb 13.
Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, the Northern Great Basin, and 
the Southwest, Tue-Fri, Feb 12-Feb 15.
Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Appalachians, the Northern Plains, 
the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, and the Great Lakes, Mon-Tue, Feb 11-Feb 12.
Heavy snow across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Tue-Wed, Feb 12-Feb 13.
Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley.
Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, 
and the Ohio Valley.
Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio 
Valley.
Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the 
Northern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, and the Pacific Northwest, Mon-Thu, Feb 11-Feb 14.
High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Feb 12-Feb 13.
High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Wed-Fri, Feb 13-Feb 15.
High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Fri, Feb 11-Feb 15.
High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Feb 11-Feb 12.
and Thu-Fri, Feb 14-Feb 15.
 
Detailed Summary:

The synoptic pattern has an omega block over the North Pacific extending into Alaska.  A full 
latitude trough extends across the western third of the country with ridging over the eastern third 
of the country.  The pattern favors a storm track going from the Southern Plains northeastward into 
the Great Lakes.  The upper-level troughing over the West will encourage below normal temperatures 
extending from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper-Mississippi Valley through Friday.  As 
upper-level energy fills the trough over the West and associated onshore flow will aid in producing 
Heavy rain along the California Coast from Tuesday into Friday.  Heavy snow will also develop from 
Tuesday into Friday, too.  

A storm developing over the Central High Plains will move into the Great Lakes with the associated 
front moving off the East Coast by Wednesday.  Moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will flow 
northward and intersecting the boundary over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic 
that will aid in producing heavy rain over parts of the the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the 
Mid-Atlantic on Monday into Wednesday.  As the same storm moves into the Middle Mississippi Valley 
heavy snow will develop over parts of the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on 
Monday into Tuesday.  As the storms continues to move eastward, the heavy snow will move into Great 
Lakes and extending into the Northeast from Tuesday into Wednesday.  Additionally, heavy snow will 
also develop over parts of the Central Appalachians on Monday into Tuesday.       

In Alaska, deep low pressure in the Bering Straits on Monday into Tuesday will produce strong wind 
of 50 knots or more and high seas over 20 feet or greater over parts of the Aleutian Islands. High 
wind of 50 knots or greater will also impact the Northwest Coast of Alaska and the Kenai Peninsula 
to Valdez on Wednesday into Friday.

On another note, a Kona Low will develop north of Hawaii on Saturday aiding in forming a surface 
low and front by Saturday that will move just north of the Islands by Sunday. The low will aid in 
developing waves up to 33 feet and strong wind of 30 to 40 knots Sunday into Monday. The Low will 
move off to the Northeast keeping high surf forming along the northern facing Islands through 
Friday.

Ziegenfelder