US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Mon Mar 04 2019
 
Valid Thursday March 07 2019 - Monday March 11 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of California, Mon, Mar 11.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Great Lakes, Sun, 
Mar 10.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern 
Appalachians, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio 
Valley, Sat-Sun, Mar 9-Mar 10.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central Appalachians, 
Sun-Mon, Mar 10-Mar 11.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southwest, Mon, Mar 11.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Thu-Fri, 
Mar 7-Mar 8.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, 
the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Sat-Sun, Mar 9-Mar 10.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Southeast.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, the Southern Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Thu-Mon, Mar 
7-Mar 11.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Mar 7-Mar 8.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the 
Southwest, Thu, Mar 7.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 10-Mar 11.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sat-Mon, Mar 9-Mar 11.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Fri-Mon, Mar 8-Mar 11.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Thu-Mon, Mar 7-Mar 11.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Aleutians, Thu-Mon, Mar 7-Mar 11.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium-range period will begin with widespread precipitation across the western U.S. which is 
expected to gradually taper off on Thursday as the moisture well ahead of the upper-level trough 
moves into the northern Plains. Sierra Nevada will once again see very heavy snowfall. The upper 
trough will then interact with an arctic front and should trigger the formation of a new frontal 
wave in the Plains on Thursday. Models show noticeable differences on the intensity and forward 
motion of this frontal wave. Some wintry precipitation can be expected to spread across the central 
Appalachians and possibly into the northern Mid-Atlantic Friday and Friday night. But the 
precipitation is not expected to be heavy.

By Saturday morning, models agree that a low pressure system will rapidly intensify over the 
central Plains and then tracks across the Great Lakes on Sunday. It appears that heavy snow will be 
a distinct possibility from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Midwest during the weekend, 
with blizzard conditions possible during the height of the storm. In addition, heavy rain is 
possible near the storm track from Iowa eastward into the upper Midwest during the weekend. Heavy 
rain will also be possible through the weekend from the Ohio Valley southward along the mid and 
lower Mississippi Valley including the interior southeastern U.S. ahead of a strong cold front. 
Farther north, precipitation ahead of the low pressure system could be heavy over parts of the 
Northeast and the central Great Lakes on Sunday (Mar. 10) where wintry precipitation is also 
possible.

For the Southwest, models agree that moisture from the next Pacific storm should arrive by next 
Monday (Mar. 11). This system could bring heavy precipitation across southern California as well as 
central Arizona.

Meanwhile, anomalously cold conditions are expected to persist across the northern and central 
Plains into the upper Midwest through next Monday. Much colder than normal conditions will 
initially dominate the Northeast but temperatures are expected to moderate by the weekend.

In Alaska, stormy conditions appear to be in the offing as a deep level ridge over mainland Alaska 
is forecast to break down, opening the door for strong Pacific cyclones to impact the region. 
Expect high winds and significant waves to impact the southern extend of Alaska, especially across 
the western Aleutians, through next Monday.

Kong