US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 308 PM EST Wed Mar 06 2019 Valid Saturday March 09 2019 - Wednesday March 13 2019 Hazards: - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Northeast, Sun, Mar 10. - Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains, Sat-Sun, Mar 9-Mar 10. - Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Sat-Sun, Mar 9-Mar 10. - Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Wed, Mar 11-Mar 13. - Heavy snow across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and higher elevations of central Arizona, Mon-Wed, Mar 11-Mar 13. - Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Tue-Wed, Mar 12-Mar 13. - Severe weather across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sat, Mar 9. - Severe weather across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun, Mar 10. - Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley. - Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northern Great Basin, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Mon, Mar 9-Mar 11. and Wed, Mar 13. - Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Southern Plains, Sat, Mar 9. - Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Tue, Mar 10-Mar 12. - High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Sun-Mon, Mar 10-Mar 11, and Wed, Mar 13. - High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sat-Sun, Mar 9-Mar 10. - High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Sat-Mon, Mar 9-Mar 11. Detailed Summary: The medium-range period will begin with a low pressure system intensifying rapidly over the central Plains on Saturday. Models are showing close agreement on bringing the storm center northeastward into the upper Midwest by Saturday night. Heavy snow appears likely from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Midwest through Saturday night, with blizzard conditions possible for areas just to the north and northwest of the storm track. Farther to the south, a period of heavy rain can be expected ahead of a strong cold front, with the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley into the interior Southeast being the most likely places seeing the heaviest rainfall during the weekend. In addition to the heavy rain, severe thunderstorms will also be possible in these areas on Saturday, spreading eastward into the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. Areas across interior New England could see a period of heavy snow changing over to mixed precipitation on Sunday into Sunday night as this intense storm approaches and begins to weaken. For the West Coast, moisture from the next Pacific cyclone could skirt coastal California from north to south through the weekend. Precipitation ahead of this system is expected to move across the Desert Southwest into the central and southern Rockies on Monday (Mar. 11). The higher elevations of central Arizona and Colorado can expect to see heavy snowfall developing on Monday. The vigorous dynamics ahead of an amplifying upper-level trough will likely result in rapid intensification of a low pressure system over the southern High Plains by next Tuesday (Mar. 12). The ECMWF has started a trend toward a slower eastward progression of this cyclone into the Plains for the middle of next week as a more amplified deep layer ridge builds across much of the eastern U.S. The latest 12Z ECMWF guidance continues to slow the forward progression of this cyclone. If this trend continues, the stronger eastern U.S. ridge would guide the cyclone toward a more northerly track up the Great Plains, and the GFS solutions may prove to be too fast. In that case, the chance of heavy snow will be pushed further to the west across the central High Plains. Meanwhile, heavy rain and strong thunderstorms appear likely farther south and east across the central and southern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of what appears to be a rather dynamic cold front. Meanwhile, anomalously cold conditions are expected to persist across the northern to central Plains and into the northern Rockies out to the interior Pacific Northwest through next Monday. Some additional cold air could again settle across the region next Wednesday as the strong cyclone intensifies over the Plains. In Alaska, stormy conditions is in the offing as a deep level ridge over mainland Alaska breaks down, opening the door for strong Pacific cyclones to impact the region. Expect high winds to impact the coastal extend of Alaska and into the higher terrain of southern Alaska through next Monday. Conditions could be not as stormy by next Tuesday. Meanwhile, heavy precipitation is expected to reach the south coast of Alaska on Sunday (Mar. 10), spreading through much of the Alaskan Peninsula Monday and Tuesday. Kong