US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EST Fri Mar 08 2019
 
Valid Monday March 11 2019 - Friday March 15 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation from portions of the Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley, Wed, Mar 
13.
- Heavy rain across the Central and Southern Plains, Mon-Tue, Mar 11-Mar 12.
- Heavy rain from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, Mar 13-Mar 15.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Tue, Mar 12.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central and Southern Rockies, Mon-Thu, Mar 11-Mar 14.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Southwest, Tue-Wed, Mar 12-Mar 13.
- Heavy snow across portions of the northern Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley, Wed-Thu, Mar 
13-Mar 14.
- Severe weather across portions of the Southern Plains, Tue, Mar 12.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
- High winds across portions of the Plains, Wed-Thu, Mar 13-Mar 14.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the northern Rockies and northern Plains, Mon, 
Mar 11.
 and Fri, Mar 15.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Mar 
13-Mar 14.
- High winds across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Wed-Thu, Mar 13-Mar 14.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Mar 11.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, 
Wed-Thu, Mar 13-Mar 14.
 
Detailed Summary:

The biggest threat across the CONUS for the medium range period will be with a deepening low 
pressure system tracking from the Southwest to the Upper Great Lakes early to middle of next week 
bringing a wide variety of weather hazards with it. The upper level system moves across the 
Southwest Monday-Tuesday, which may bring heavy snowfall to some of the higher terrain in Arizona 
and the central/southern Rockies. Expect an expanding area of heavy rainfall ahead of this system 
as well across much of the Southern and Central Plains Monday-Tuesday, with heavy rainfall moving 
eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley by Wednesday-Friday as the 
main upper level energy ejects into the Plains. The potential for several inches of rain exists 
over a large area, with flooding/flash flooding a threat, particularly across the lower and middle 
Mississippi River Valley as this area is already very susceptible to additional rainfall given 
recent days of heavy rains. Atmospheric conditions also look favorable for the development of 
strong to potentially severe convection along the attendant cold front, especially across parts of 
the Southern Plains on Tuesday, March 12 where SPC has highlighted an area on their convective 
outlook. To the north, the potential for heavy snowfall was placed from parts of the northern 
Plains to northern Minnesota, with an area of heavy precipitation noted just south of here across 
parts of the Upper Midwest given continued uncertainty in exact low placement and consequently 
precipitation type. Expect high winds to accompany this system as well, which may lead to blizzard 
conditions for locations that receive snow.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, energy moving into the Northwest may bring a period of heavy snowfall 
to parts of the Cascades on Tuesday, March 12, with rain likely at lower elevations but looks to be 
below the criteria for including an area on the hazards chart. The main area for much below normal 
temperatures will be initially on Monday across the northern Rockies/northern Plains, with 
temperatures expected to moderate to near normal during the middle of next week. Another round of 
much below normal temperatures should move into this region at the end of the week as surface high 
pressure noses south and eastward from central Canada.

In Alaska, low pressure along the western mainland in the beginning of the week may lead to a 
period of high winds in the Bering Straight on Monday. A stronger low pressure system lifting 
through the western Gulf toward the Peninsula could bring high winds and significant waves to 
coastal locations across the southern coast and the Panhandle. The system is also likely to bring a 
period of heavy precipitation (rain/higher elevation snow) to the same area.

Santorelli