US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019
 
Valid Friday March 29 2019 - Tuesday April 02 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, Mon, Apr 1.
- Heavy rain across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Mon, Apr 1.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, 
and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sat, Mar 29-Mar 30.
- Heavy snow across portions of the Central Rockies, the Central Plains, and the Northern Plains, 
Fri, Mar 29.
- Severe weather across portions of the Southern Plains, Fri, Mar 29.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, 
and the Northern Plains.
- High winds across portions of the Central Plains and the Southern Plains, Sat, Mar 30.
 
Detailed Summary:

Upper level energy associated with a closed low currently off the West Coast will push inland this 
week and reach the north-central High Plains by the start of the forecast period (Friday, March 
29). A combination of both Pacific and Gulf of Mexico moisture, along with upslope flow behind an 
arctic front, will support a swath of heavy snows from southeastern Wyoming across much of Nebraska 
during Friday. Farther east, this Gulf moisture will also interact with a strengthening frontal 
boundary (and developing low along the front), bringing the potential for an area of heavy rainfall 
from the mid-Mississippi Valley eastward across the upper Ohio Valley Friday into Saturday. 
Rainfall amounts will generally range from 1-2 inches and exacerbate the significant flooding 
already taking place over the Mississippi Valley. However, this system is expected to progress 
steadily eastward and be followed by mostly dry conditions across the central U.S. for much of the 
rest of the Day 3-7 period.

During Friday and Saturday, a strong cold front will move very quickly through the central and 
southern Plains. Out ahead of the front, the moist and unstable air mass and strong low-level 
convergence will support the potential for severe thunderstorms across eastern Oklahoma. High 
pressure diving in behind the front will bring the threat for strong northerly winds and locally 
gusty conditions Friday night into Saturday, mostly across Oklahoma and western/central Texas. This 
will be a short-lived event as the high settles in Saturday night/Sunday and winds diminish.

Another trough moving through the Pacific may bring a period of moderate to heavy precipitation to 
the Pacific Northwest on April 1. Liquid equivalent amounts of about 1-1.5 inches are possible, 
with the heaviest totals mainly confined along and west of the Cascades. Temperatures will be warm 
enough to support mostly rain for this event, with the exception of the higher elevations of the 
Washington and Oregon Cascades.

The ongoing moderate to major flooding across the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins is expected 
to continue through this forecast period. As mentioned earlier, heavy rainfall will aggravate this 
situation over the mid-Mississippi Valley late this week, but should be followed by mostly dry 
conditions. In addition, temperatures will remain at or slightly below normal through the period 
across the Upper Mississippi Valley and northern Plains, which will help reduce the potential for 
rapid snowmelt.

During early next week, there are some indications that a storm system may form in the Gulf of 
Mexico along a stationary frontal boundary, then move quickly across the Florida peninsula. 
However, at this time, there is too much uncertainty with the track and timing of the storm to 
introduce a heavy rainfall hazard.

Alaska remains fairly quiet during the medium range period as surface high pressure gets anchored 
over the mainland. Temperatures across much of the state will be above normal, especially over the 
North Slope, but not to the extent that it represents a significant hazard.

Klein