US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Fri May 03 2019
 
Valid Monday May 06 2019 - Friday May 10 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Mon, May 6.
- Heavy rain from portions of the Southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley, Wed-Fri, May 8-May 10.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Mon-Wed, May 
6-May 8.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower 
Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, May 7-May 8.
 
Detailed Summary:

An active weather pattern will continue across south and central parts of the U.S. during the 
medium range period (May 6 - 10). A series of upper level disturbances will allow for ample Gulf of 
Mexico moisture to interact with a slow moving frontal boundary to generate multiple rounds of 
showers and thunderstorms next week. Rain will likely be heavy at times, some of which may fall 
across already overly susceptible areas due to recent heavy rains and where ongoing flooding is 
occurring. At this time, an initial shortwave early next week moving from Texas to the Ohio Valley 
will focus two areas of rain... one across central/eastern Texas, and a second along the actual 
frontal boundary across parts of the Central Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley. By later in the 
week, as the frontal boundary sags slowly southward, an axis of heavy rainfall is forecast to set 
up from eastern Texas to the Tennessee Valley/lower Ohio Valley. Pockets of heavy rain are likely 
farther north along the boundary into the upper Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic as well, but 
there is continued uncertainty on whether this will meet the criteria for a heavy rain area on the 
hazards chart. 

In Alaska, sustained southerly flow interacting with a slow moving frontal boundary is likely to 
result in potentially heavy precipitation (lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow) along 
parts of the Southern Coast during the middle of next week. At this point, the best chance for 
heavy precipitation looks to focus from the Kenai Peninsula to the Prince William Sound region.

Santorelli