US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
424 PM EDT Wed May 08 2019
 
Valid Saturday May 11 2019 - Wednesday May 15 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central 
Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, 
the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Sun, May 
11-May 12.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Mon-Tue, May 13-May 14.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southern 
Plains, Wed, May 15.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the 
Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the 
Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Southern Plains.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Southern Rockies, the Central Plains, and 
the Southern Plains, Sat, May 11.
 
Detailed Summary:

The southern U.S. will continue to be in a fairly active pattern this coming week as multiple 
shortwaves eject into the Central/Southern Plains from an upper low over the Southwest region. 
Widespread rain is expected to develop across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley as 
deep Gulf moisture feeds northward into a slow-moving front draped across the central U.S. Multiple 
rounds of heavy rain will occur over areas that are very saturated; which will increase the risk 
for flooding. Organized rainfall will extend eastward along the front into the southern 
Appalachians and expand into the central Mid-Atlantic states during Sunday in response to surface 
low development in advance of an amplifying northern stream short wave trough.

Cool, Canadian air will sink southward through the Northern and Central High Plains and settle in 
near the Rockies and Southern Plains. This will lead to daytime maximum temperatures to average 
15-25 degrees below normal expected Saturday. Temperatures across this region will moderate by 
Sunday and Monday, but still remain below average.

Over the southwestern U.S., the aforementioned upper low will have plenty of Pacific moisture 
associated with it. A series of embedded short waves rotating through the low will support a large 
area of showers and possible thundershowers from central California eastward into New Mexico 
through Sunday. Isolated rainfall totals across this region may be in excess of .5 to 1 inch any of 
those days, but large model QPF differences made pinpointing the most favorable location(s) quite 
difficult. Therefore, no hazard areas were identified. As this low progresses eastward, it will 
again encounter deeper Gulf moisture returning into Texas and bring the potential for more 
widespread heavy rainfall to parts of Texas and Louisiana Monday and Tuesday- some guidance 
indicates totals in excess of several inches across Texas/Gulf Coast region.


Campbell