US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Fri May 10 2019
 
Valid Monday May 13 2019 - Friday May 17 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Mon, May 13.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Mon-Tue, May 13-May 14.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the 
Northern Plains, the Tennessee Valley, the Northern Great Basin, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the 
Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi 
Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
 
Detailed Summary:

Moisture along a stationary boundary draped off the Gulf Coast will interact with an ejecting 
shortwave out of the Southern Rockies on Tuesday to produce rain, potentially heavy, along the 
boundary. Models appear to be trending towards the heaviest axis remaining offshore and for this 
reason, the heavy rainfall area from yesterdays chart for this region was removed today. However, 
there remains a chance that heavy rainfall reaches the coast and even a small amount of rain 
(especially across East Texas and Louisiana) could be enough to cause problems, so the forecast 
will need to be watched across this area. To the west, as the upper level shortwave enters the 
Southern Plains on Monday, there is enough agreement with some moderate to heavy rainfall across 
parts of the High Plains/West Texas to maintain the heavy rainfall area from yesterday. As the 
shortwave energy slides across Florida, mid to late next week, heavy rainfall may impact parts of 
southeast and south Florida, but given model uncertainties on intensity and overall impact, a heavy 
rain area was not included today.

Elsewhere, consolidating surface low pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday may bring 
a period of heavy rainfall to parts of the Northeast coast Monday into Tuesday next week. Some 
models indicate around an inch or more within a 24-hour period so a small heavy rain area was added 
for parts of coastal New England. In the interior northwest, daytime temperatures may average 10 to 
20 degrees above normal Monday resulting in temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s for some of the 
lowest Valleys. Since these warm temperatures are expected to moderate and push east by Tuesday and 
Wednesday, and not persist for too long, opted to not include a much above normal temperatures 
hazards area.

Santorelli