US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
 
Valid Monday May 27 2019 - Friday May 31 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Great Plains, the Mississippi Valley, and the Great Lakes, 
Mon-Thu, May 27-May 30.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central and Northern Rockies, as well as the Central and 
Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, May 27-May 28.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central and Southern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Middle 
and Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue, May 28.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central and Northern Plains, the Middle and Upper 
Mississippi Valley, as well as the Great Lakes, Mon, May 27.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the 
Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and 
the Tennessee Valley, Mon-Thu, May 27-May 30.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the 
Southwest, Mon, May 27.
 
Detailed Summary:

The active weather pattern will continue through much of the medium range period after Memorial Day 
weekend. The central U.S. will see a few rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain as a persistent 
western U.S. trough and southeastern U.S. ridge continues to allow low-level moisture to funnel 
into the Great Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Monday (May 27) and Tuesday (May 
28) as having the greatest chance for severe thunderstorms. The threat on Monday is located across 
the Central Plains into the Midwest, while Tuesday's threat shifts towards the southeast and 
extends from northern Texas to western Illinois. Meanwhile, heavy rain will also remain a major 
hazard from the Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes from Monday to Thursday. 
Rain amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible, with locally higher amounts. 

To the northwest of a strengthening low-pressure system, heavy rain could also lead to flooding 
across central/eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska and western South Dakota Monday and Tuesday. Rain 
amounts in these areas will add up to around 1-3 inches as well. Strong winds will also be possible 
along the front range of the Rockies into the High Plains, but confidence in these winds becoming 
hazardous is low. However, these winds associated with low humidity will lead to an Enhanced 
Wildfire Risk on Monday across central and southern New Mexico, far southeastern Arizona, and far 
west Texas.

In the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, a persistent ridge of high pressure will allow for an 
early-season excessive heat event to continue through Thursday (May 30). High temperatures will 
approach the mid-to-upper 90s, with some areas topping out around 100 degrees in Georgia and South 
Carolina. Maximum heat indices around 105 and 110 degrees will be found from northern Florida to 
southeastern South Carolina through Wednesday. Wednesday also looks like the warmest day across the 
Mid-Atlantic, with a maximum heat index of 100 degrees possible around the Washington D.C. area.  

Several rounds of showers will impact southern Alaska between Monday and Friday, but will be 
considered light and not hazardous. Temperatures will run slightly above average for this time of 
year.

Snell