US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019
 
Valid Saturday June 08 2019 - Wednesday June 12 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Ohio 
Valley, the Southeast, the Southern/Central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, the Great Lakes, and 
the Northeast, Sat-Wed, Jun 8-Jun 12.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Northern Great Basin.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat-Sun, Jun 8-Jun 9.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the 
Central/Northern Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies, Mon-Wed, Jun 10-Jun 12.
- Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central/Northern Great Basin, the 
Central/Northern Rockies, and the Central/Northern Plains, Sat, Jun 8.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range is expected to continue with split upper-level flow on Saturday, with an 
upper-level trough centered in the Lower Mississippi Valley, but with the main jet stream across 
the northern tier of the U.S. In the northern stream, an upper trough will be centered over the 
Northern Great Basin on Saturday, with ridging across the Upper Great Lakes. Both upper troughs 
will move eastward throughout the period. In the southern stream, ample moisture is forecast to 
spread ahead of the low into the Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and eventually 
into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Rain is expected to move out of the Mississippi Valley by 
Monday, but persist in the Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Appalachians into the middle 
of next week. Multi-day rainfall totals of several inches are expected there. Model guidance has 
come into better agreement that the two troughs will align and begin to phase by Tuesday, ahead of 
which moisture will stream into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Monday through Wednesday. 

To the north and west, the upper trough initially located in the Northwest is forecast to track 
across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the weekend. This trough will help cause somewhat 
below average temperatures (mainly cool high temperatures) throughout the Northwest, as well as 
precipitation continuing into Saturday. In higher elevations, some snow is possible with the cold 
temperatures, but particularly heavy snow is not expected other than for the highest peaks. There 
is some potential for heavy rain to spread into the Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest and 
Upper Great Lakes region ahead of the trough over the weekend, but confidence in widespread 
rainfall totals over an inch in these areas was too low at this time to introduce a hazard for 
heavy rainfall. The weather pattern in the West will change somewhat quickly by the beginning of 
next week, as upper-level ridging comes into the West Coast behind the trough. This ridging is 
expected to lead to much above average temperatures in the West Coast states for the beginning of 
the workweek.

Elsewhere, excessive heat is expected for southern to southeastern Texas over the weekend as an 
upper high is located in Mexico, with heat indices over 105 and up to 115 in far southern Texas. 
The excessive heat should abate by Monday other than in far southern Texas.

No hazardous weather is anticipated for Alaska through the medium-range period.


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