US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2019
 
Valid Thursday June 13 2019 - Monday June 17 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern/Central Plains, the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, 
the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Appalachians.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Plains, the Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Great Basin, the Northern/Central Rockies, the Northern 
Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sat-Mon, Jun 15-Jun 17.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern 
Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Thu-Mon, Jun 13-Jun 17.
 
Detailed Summary:

After a break over the past couple days and during the short range period, the central U.S. is once 
again expecting heavy rainfall in the medium range. Model uncertainty exists regarding the 
placement of shortwave troughs in the western U.S. that could influence the lift for this 
precipitation, but regardless, moisture inflow is expected to increase in the Central/Southern 
Plains initially and spread eastward through the period. Thus, the current forecast shows heavy 
rain beginning in the Central/Southern Plains by Thursday and spreading into the Middle Mississippi 
Valley and Ohio Valley for the weekend. Overall a widespread 2 to 4 inches of precipitation is 
forecast for parts of the Southern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley, with 
locally higher amounts. These regions have generally had much above average rainfall over the past 
few months and are sensitive to additional rainfall. By next Monday and Tuesday, a slow-moving 
front is expected to suppress the heavy rain a bit southward into the Lower Mississippi Valley and 
Tennessee Valley, while continuing in the Southern Plains. Heavy rainfall is also possible farther 
east toward the Lower Great Lakes region and Northeast for the end of the period, but did not 
outlook an area there due to uncertainties in amounts and placement. 

An anomalous (2-3 standard deviations above average) upper ridge over the West Coast causing record 
heat in the short range period is expected to become more suppressed in the medium range. 
Nevertheless, above average temperatures should persist especially for the Northern Great Basin and 
Northern Rockies throughout the period, with the warmest day being Thursday. Meanwhile, 
temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. are forecast to be below average for the end of 
the workweek with an upper-level trough in place. Excessive heat with temperatures close to or 
surpassing 100 degrees and heat indices above 105 degrees will spread into southern Texas by the 
weekend and into Monday. 

An upper-level low is expected to be centered over the Aleutians and the Gulf of Alaska through 
much of the period. This will cause a surface low pressure system to persist just south of the 
Aleutians. There is a possibility of gusty winds over the Aleutians, as well as moderate to locally 
heavy rain moving across the Aleutians Thursday into Friday and into the southern mainland Alaska 
coast Friday and into the weekend. However, these potential threats seem to be borderline and below 
criteria (winds >40 knots and precipitation over 1.5 or 2" in 24 hours) to draw hazards at this 
time. 


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