US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2019
 
Valid Friday June 14 2019 - Tuesday June 18 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain from portions of the Southern/Central Plains to the lower Ohio Valley, Sat-Mon, Jun 
15-Jun 17.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins, and 
western North Carolina.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins, northern South 
Carolina, and parts of the Central/Northern Great Basin.
- Excessive heat across portions of south Texas, Sat-Tue, Jun 15-Jun 18.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the interior Northwest, Fri-Sat, Jun 14-Jun 15.
 
Detailed Summary:

Another heavy rainfall threat is possible from parts of the central-southern Plains to the lower 
Ohio Valley along a slow moving or stalled frontal boundary towards the end of this weekend and 
into early next week. The most likely region for significant and widespread 2-4+ inches is from 
eastern Oklahoma/southeast Kansas to southern Ohio and this is the area highlighted on the hazards 
chart today. Areas within this region, particularly across the Mississippi/Missouri River Basins, 
have had much above normal rainfall over the past few weeks and remain sensitive to additional 
rainfall. Isolated significant amounts may also extend into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast but 
confidence on this is still low and so an area in this region was not included on today's hazards 
chart. 

An anomalous upper ridge (on the order of 2-3 standard deviations above normal) situated over the 
West Coast and causing record heat in the short range period should be suppressed a bit in the 
medium range period. Above average temperatures continue to be likely during the medium range 
period, but not nearly as warm as in the short range period. For the most part, anomalies look to 
be below hazard criteria (12+ degrees), except for some of the lower elevations of eastern 
Washington and northern Oregon at the end of this week. Meanwhile, excessive heat with daytime 
highs near or above 100F and even higher heat indices are possible across parts of South Texas 
Saturday through Tuesday. An excessive heat area was continued on today's hazards chart for areas 
where heat indices are forecast to be above 105F.

In Alaska, an upper level low centered just south of the eastern Aleutians and drifting slowly 
eastward during the medium range period will bring a period of unsettled conditions to parts of the 
Aleutians, Peninsula, and southern mainland coast. The potential for gusty winds and moderate to 
locally heavy rainfall is possible. At this time, the threats appear to stay below hazards chart 
criteria so no areas are indicated on today's chart, but this system will need to be monitored in 
the coming days for updates to the forecast.

Santorelli