US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2019
 
Valid Sunday June 16 2019 - Thursday June 20 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, 
the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Central/Southern Appalachians, the Great Lakes, the 
Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, Sun-Thu, Jun 16-Jun 20.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Middle/Lower 
Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Rockies and the Central Great Basin.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Sun-Thu, Jun 16-Jun 20.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Great 
Basin, Sun-Mon, Jun 16-Jun 17.
 
Detailed Summary:

Abundant moisture will stream into the central and eastern U.S. next week and interact with a 
slow-moving frontal boundary that is expected to press slowly southward across the Ohio Valley and 
Middle Mississippi Valley for the beginning of the week and then lift northward midweek. This will 
lead to the threat of heavy rainfall for the Central/Southern Plains northeastward toward portions 
of the northern Mid-Atlantic and Lower Great Lakes region. Several rounds of rain could occur, with 
total rainfall amounts of 1 to 5 inches. River flooding is still ongoing along the Mississippi and 
Missouri Rivers, so this additional rain could exacerbate flooding concerns. Lesser widespread 
rainfall amounts, but with local maxima over an inch possible, are forecast in the Northeast early 
in the week as well. 

While widespread record heat has ended across the West Coast as of Thursday, some hint of 
upper-level ridging is forecast early next week in the Northwest. Thus, much above normal 
temperatures, with highs 10 to 15 degrees above average, are expected to persist in portions of the 
Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies on Sun and Mon. Meanwhile, southern Texas is forecast to 
see excessive heat throughout the period, as heat indices over 105 degrees are expected. By 
midweek, heat indices above 110 and even locally above 115 will spread into South Texas. 

Early next week, a surface low moving through the Gulf of Alaska will help cause unsettled weather 
in the form of gusty winds and moderate to locally heavy precipitation to the southern coast of 
mainland Alaska on Sunday, moving into the Panhandle on Monday. Currently it does not seem like 
these threats will reach the criteria recommended for inclusion on the hazards chart, so no hazard 
areas are indicated. Weather in Alaska appears calm after this low passes.

While not highlighted on the hazards chart, a tight pressure gradient along the West Coast of the 
U.S. may lead to some localized threats, mainly offshore of northern California and far 
southwestern Oregon. Some models indicate that gusty winds potentially over 40 knots and wave 
heights over 15 feet are possible. This activity seems to peak on Tuesday into Thursday and could 
cause marine hazards. 


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