US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2019
 
Valid Monday June 17 2019 - Friday June 21 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain from portions of the South-Central Plains to the northern Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Thu, Jun 
17-Jun 20.
- Heavy rain from portions of the South-Central Plains to the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee 
Valleys, Tue-Thu, Jun 18-Jun 20.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Mississippi and Missouri River Basins, as 
well as the northern Rockies.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Rockies and the Central Great Basin.
- Excessive heat across portions of South Texas, Mon-Fri, Jun 17-Jun 21.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of eastern Washington, Mon, Jun 17.
 
Detailed Summary:

The pattern during the medium range period continues to favor multiple shortwaves traversing a 
slow-moving frontal boundary from the south-central Plains northeastward to the northern 
Mid-Atlantic. This results in several rounds of potentially heavy rainfall along the boundary. The 
first round at the beginning of the period (Monday) lifts from eastern Oklahoma/northeast Texas 
through the Ohio Valley Monday to Wednesday and into Thursday. Moderate to locally heavy rainfall 
may also extend into parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Thursday, but some uncertainty 
remains on whether this will be hazardous so it was left off the hazards chart at this time. 
Another round of heavy rain should shift from the Central Plains to parts of the Deep South 
Tuesday-Thursday next week. Models show this area may be displaced slightly southward from the 
first round, so a separate heavy rain area was included on today's chart to depict this. Regardless 
though, total precipitation during the 5 day period from parts of the south-central Plains to the 
Ohio Valley could be on the order of 1 to 5 inches, and many locations here remain overly 
susceptible to additional rains due to recent heavy rainfall in the past few weeks and ongoing 
flooding concerns.

Above normal temperatures in the short range period across the West may extend into the very 
beginning of the medium range period with averages +10 to +15 degrees especially across the 
Columbia River Valley of central and eastern Washington. Beyond Monday, upper level troughing moves 
into the region with temperatures moderating back towards normal values and eventually slightly 
below normal by the end of the week. Meanwhile, hot and humid conditions across South Texas will 
continue next week with heat indices 105 to 115 possible. Excessive heat may spread north and 
eastward towards the Austin/San Antonio and Houston metro regions as well by the end of the week so 
the excessive heat area was expanded slightly to account for this.

In Alaska, a surface low moving through the Gulf of Alaska early next week will result in unsettled 
weather along the mainland coast and into the Panhandle with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds 
possible. It continues to be the case though that these threats may not reach criteria for 
inclusion on the hazards chart, so no hazard areas were continued across Alaska.

Santorelli