US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2019
 
Valid Monday July 01 2019 - Friday July 05 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southern Plains, Tue-Wed, Jul 2-Jul 3.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi 
Valley,   Mon-Fri, Jul 1-Jul 5.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower 
Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Fri, Jul 1-Jul 5.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the mainland Alaska, Mon-Fri, Jul 1-Jul 5.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Tue, Jul 1-Jul 2.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Aleutians, Wed-Thu, Jul 3-Jul 4.
- Excessive heat across portions of mainland Alaska, Thu-Fri, Jul 4-Jul 5.
- High winds across portions of the Aleutians, Mon-Thu, Jul 1-Jul 2.
 
Detailed Summary:

The strong surface high pressure centered just off the Central Gulf Coast will help direct a steady 
stream of high moisture air into the Western Gulf Coast. With weak upper-level energy crossing over 
the Texas Coast and encountering the moisture-rich airmass, showers and thunderstorms capable of 
producing heavy rainfall along the Western Gulf Coast will develop over the Western Gulf Tuesday 
into Wednesday.

Upper-level ridge over the eastern parts of the country will develop into an upper-level high by 
Friday.  Daytime high temperatures will range from the the mid to upper 90's and the low 100's in 
combination with dewpoint temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 60 into the low 70's and the 
upper-level ridging will produce conditions that will meet the threshold for excessive heat over 
much of the Southeast into the Carolinas from Monday into Thursday and possibly into Friday as well.

Furthermore, with a quasi-stationary front extending west to east across the Upper Midwest from 
Monday into Friday in combination with moisture rich air pooling a long the boundary and 
upper-level impulses moving a long the front will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over 
the region on Monday into Friday.  This recipe will produce heavy rainfall over parts of the Upper 
Midwest that will exceed the criteria for heavy rain of one inch in 24 hours from Monday into 
Friday.     

Mainland Alaska, from the Kenai Peninsula into portions of the Alaska Range, will hot and dry again 
with temperatures over 20 degrees above normal on Thursday and Friday. This will meet the excessive 
heat criteria for this parts of Alaska on Thursday and Friday.  These hot and dry conditions will 
also increase the risk for the spread of wildfires. The elevated fire weather risk over the Alaska 
mainland will extend from south of the Brooks Range eastward to the U. S./Canadian border and as 
far south as the Kuskokwim Mountains to parts of the Cook Inlet and Kenal Peninsula will continue 
into Friday.  

In addition, low pressure over the North Pacific will move northward into the Bering Sea by Tuesday 
and then moving into Western Russia by Friday passing over the Near Islands on Monday into Tuesday. 
 The system will bring a plume of moisture originating from just south of Japan to the Rat Islands 
and the Central Aleutians on Monday into Wednesday producing heavy rain over the Islands on Tuesday 
into Thursday.  Additionally, the strong pressure gradient associated with the low will meet the 
criteria for high wind on Monday into Tuesday over the Rat Islands and Central Aleutians.  

Ziegenfelder