US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Jul 04 2019
 
Valid Sunday July 07 2019 - Thursday July 11 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Mon-Tue, Jul 
8-Jul 9.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tue-Thu, Jul 9-Jul 11.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Sun-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 11.
- Severe weather across portions of the Northern Plains, Mon, Jul 8.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, the Middle/Lower 
Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Northern/Central Plains and the Upper/Middle Mississippi 
Valley.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Sun-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 11.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 11.
- Enhanced wildfire risk across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Jul 7.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun-Thu, Jul 7-Jul 11.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Sun, Jul 7.
 
Detailed Summary:

In the medium range period, the overall pattern is forecast to have troughing near the Pacific 
Northwest and a typical summer ridge centered over the Southern Plains, while another trough moves 
over the eastern U.S. early in the week. The ridge across the central U.S. should create summer 
heat across the Gulf Coast states and into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with heat indices expected 
to be over 105 degrees through midweek. 

Farther east, the trough will push a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Sunday 
and Monday, then into the Southeast and Florida Panhandle by Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rain is 
expected south of this front along the coast of the Carolinas early in the week, with locally heavy 
rain also possible in the Central/Southern Appalachians with upslope flow enhancement. Heavy rain 
will then shift into Florida for midweek ahead of the cold front's unusually southward push for 
this time of year. Enhanced moisture from the Gulf could also lead to heavy rain along the 
Louisiana coast. Meanwhile, a shortwave moving across the northern tier will lead to severe weather 
and heavy rain possible for the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Monday and Tuesday.

Persistent ridging in Alaska will remain through midweek, with some relaxation and westward 
movement of the ridge possible later in the period. But much above average temperatures and 
record-setting warmth as well as an enhanced risk of wildfires will continue, particularly for 
mainland Alaska. As the center of the ridge moves westward, the Alaskan panhandle should see relief 
from these conditions after the beginning of the week.

Current Hurricane Barbara is expected to weaken over the next few days and become post-tropical as 
it moves westward toward Hawaii. Hawaii could see some effects of the system by Monday and Tuesday 
before Barbara dissipates, with increased wave heights, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds. 


Tate