US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019
 
Valid Sunday July 14 2019 - Thursday July 18 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle 
Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sun-Wed, Jul 14-Jul 17.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the 
Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the 
Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Sun-Tue, Jul 14-Jul 16.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Thu, Jul 18.
 
Detailed Summary:

Overall, upper-level ridging across the central and eastern United States will lead to a relatively 
quiet pattern over most of the country. The exception will be with Tropical Storm Barry in the 
northern Gulf of Mexico as it tracks northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Tropical Storm 
Barry is currently forecast to become a tropical depression by Sunday (July 14) and located over 
northeastern Louisiana. Slight uncertainty still remains on the exact track of Barry, but 
confidence is high on an impact to the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday and Monday, extending into 
the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio valleys by the middle of next week. The biggest threat 
from this system is expected to be from extremely heavy rainfall in the western and central Gulf 
Coast states, as well as inland across the Lower Mississippi Valley from Sunday to Wednesday. Total 
rainfall amounts of 10 to 15 inches are expected near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through 
early next week, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches possible. By the end of next week there 
is large uncertainty as to whether the system will weaken completely, or continue to bring the 
threat of heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.

The other area of concern for heavy rain will be across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest 
through the middle of next week. Several waves of thunderstorms will be possible along a stalled 
frontal boundary and could lead to rainfall amounts greater than one inch, but uncertainty remains 
with the placement of the heaviest rain, as well as if amounts will actually add up to over an 
inch. Therefore, a heavy rain area was not added to the hazards graphic.

Heat is expected underneath the upper-level ridging across the Southwest from Sunday to Tuesday. 
High temperatures around 115 degrees plus above average overnight lows necessitated placing a 
hazard area there. An Excessive Heat area was also added across  portions of the Lower and Middle 
Mississippi Valley for Thursday (July 18), where heat indices of 105-110 degrees are possible.

No weather hazards are forecast for Alaska during this period.


Snell