US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019
 
Valid Monday July 15 2019 - Friday July 19 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the 
Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the 
Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Thu, Jul 15-Jul 18.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Wed-Thu, Jul 
17-Jul 18.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Northeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, 
the Central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Northern Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the 
Ohio Valley.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower 
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Mon, Jul 15.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, 
Wed-Fri, Jul 17-Jul 19.
 
Detailed Summary:

Overall, upper-level ridging across the central and eastern United States will lead to a relatively 
quiet pattern over most of the country next week. The obvious exception will be with Tropical Storm 
Barry in the northern Gulf of Mexico as it tracks through the Lower Mississippi Valley and into the 
Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Tropical Storm Barry is currently forecast to weaken to a post-tropical 
depression by Monday (July 15) over central Arkansas. Slight uncertainty still remains on the exact 
track of Barry, but confidence is high on an impact to the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday 
extending into the Middle Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio valleys by Tuesday and through the end 
of the week. The biggest threat from this system from Monday onward is expected to be from heavy 
rainfall. Total rainfall amounts between Monday and Friday  are expected to range from 2 to 4 
inches, with locally higher amounts around western Tennessee. By the end of next week there is 
large uncertainty as to whether the system will weaken completely, or continue to bring the threat 
of heavy rain to the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast.

The other area of concern for heavy rain will be across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest 
through the middle of next week. Several waves of thunderstorms will be possible as shortwave 
energy rides along the top of an upper-level ridge and a stalled frontal boundary. Total rainfall 
amounts could add up to around 2 inches, but uncertainty remains on the exact placement between the 
Dakotas and Upper Midwest . 

Excessive Heat is expected underneath the upper-level ridging across the Southwest on Monday. High 
temperatures around 115 degrees plus above average overnight lows necessitated placing a hazard 
area there. An Excessive Heat area was also added across large portions of the central United 
States. Heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees will begin to creep into the Central Plains by 
Wednesday and expand into the Midwest and Ohio Valley by the end of the week.

No weather hazards are forecast for Alaska during this period.


Snell