US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019
 
Valid Friday July 19 2019 - Tuesday July 23 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, 
the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Mon-Tue, Jul 22-Jul 23.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the 
Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, 
Sun-Mon, Jul 21-Jul 22.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Sun, Jul 
20-Jul 21.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Tue, Jul 23.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower 
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great 
Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sat, Jul 19-Jul 20.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, and the Central 
Appalachians, Fri-Sun, Jul 19-Jul 21.
 
Detailed Summary:

A broad upper level ridge will encompass much of the central and eastern U.S. for the end of the 
work week and into the weekend, with the main storm track confined from the northern Rockies to the 
northern Great Lakes. Given the upper level pattern, cold fronts are not expected to make much 
progress south of 40 degrees north. This will allow for heat and humidity to build across the 
central plains to the Ohio Valley by the middle to end of the week, and a second area of excessive 
heat likely for the East Coast region from Georgia to southern New England. Widespread high 
temperatures in the mid 90s to low 100s can be expected for multiple days. In addition, dewpoints 
rising well into the 70s will result in heat indices reaching or exceeding 105 degrees, with some 
peaking in the 110 to 115 degree range during peak afternoon heating. Another factor worth noting 
will be the anomalously warm overnight low temperatures. This will especially hold true for the big 
cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with lows failing to fall below 80 degrees Friday night 
and Saturday night. This is assuming that no significant rainfall occurs during those evening and 
overnight periods. Heat-related weather headlines will likely be needed for both of the regions 
delineated on the hazards chart later in the week.

The main area of concern for heavy rain will be across the Upper Midwest over the upcoming weekend, 
with the greatest potential on Sunday. There will likely be an organized thunderstorm complex in 
association with a developing surface low that will track on the northern periphery of the ridge. 
Total rainfall amounts on the order of 1 to 2 inches will be possible, but uncertainty remains on 
the exact placement across Minnesota and Wisconsin.  There will likely also be patchy areas of 
heavy rain across the Southeast U.S. early next week, and also across parts of southern Colorado 
and northern New Mexico.

No weather hazards are forecast for Alaska during this period.


Hamrick