US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2019
 
Valid Monday July 22 2019 - Friday July 26 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Tue-Thu, Jul 
23-Jul 25.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the 
Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Jul 22-Jul 23.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Upper 
Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Jul 24-Jul 26.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon, Jul 22.
 
Detailed Summary:

Monday through Friday of next week will feature a refreshing change for much of the country. A cold 
front is forecast to push through the Northeast on Monday and swing through the Mid-Atlantic 
Tuesday, followed by the Southeast on Wednesday before stalling along the Gulf Coast. This will 
usher in a new and cooler airmass to regions experiencing heat indices over 100 degrees currently. 
However, high temperatures and heat indices will still feel quite oppressive across portions of the 
Mid-Atlantic on Monday ahead of the cold front, which warranted an Excessive Heat area on the 
hazards chart. High temperatures across central and eastern North Carolina are forecast to be in 
the upper 90s, with maximum heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees. For areas behind the cold 
front, high temperatures are forecast to be near or below average for this time of year. 

The aforementioned cold front will also bring the risk for heavy rain. Since it will be relatively 
slow-moving, the opportunity for training showers/thunderstorms exists. Rainfall amounts don't 
appear to be overwhelming at the moment, but probabilities of 1-2 inches in 24 hours are high 
enough to place highlighted areas on the hazards map. The area with the greatest chance of 
repeating showers and thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast and southern portions of the 
Southeast, as the cold front stalls on Wednesday and lingers.

The Desert Southwest will see heat return next week. Upper-level ridging across the western U.S. 
will lead to widespread above normal temperatures. Heat indices will start to become excessive 
across portions of southeastern California and Southwestern Arizona beginning on Wednesday (July 
24). Minimum temperatures will be quite warm as well, with lows only reaching 90 degrees in some 
spots, which equates to around 10 degrees above average. 

Above average temperatures are forecast across much of Alaska by the end of the period, but no 
hazards are expected at this time. 


Snell