US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019
 
Valid Thursday July 25 2019 - Monday July 29 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Sat-Mon, Jul 
27-Jul 29.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, the Northeast, the Central Appalachians, 
the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower 
Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Upper Mississippi Valley.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Fri-Sat, Jul 26-Jul 27.
 
Detailed Summary:

Thursday (July 25) through Monday (July 29) is forecast to have only a few weather hazards across 
the United States. Upper-level ridging across the western U.S. at the beginning of the period will 
turn to a more zonal flow by the end of the weekend. This will lead to above-average temperatures 
across the Southwest, with heat indices approaching 115 degrees Friday and Saturday and low 
temperatures only dropping to around 90. Otherwise, temperatures will be more or less average for 
this time of year across the remainder of the country.

Heavy rain will be possible across the Upper Mississippi Valley starting Friday. Several impulses 
of energy will ride overtop of the ridging set in place and along a few swinging cold fronts. 
Confidence is low regarding the exact placement of the heaviest rain, but still a high enough 
signal to place a highlighted area. Amounts don't appear that substantial at the moment, more 
likely 1 to 3 inches, but there is still time for changes in the forecast. 

A few other regions that could see heavy rain, but not enough confidence to warrant a heavy rain 
area, include Florida and the southern Rockies/Southwest. The cold front currently moving through 
the eastern U.S. is forecast to stall and later die across the Gulf Coast and northern Florida. 
This could result in locally heavy rain across northern Florida. Monsoonal moisture could also lead 
to heavy rain across the Southern Rockies and Southwest, but amounts don't seem high enough (>1 
inch in 24 hours) to reach hazardous criteria.

An upper-level low pressure system over the western half of Alaska during this time-period will 
lead to below-average temperatures and several chances for rain. However, no highlighted areas were 
added to the hazards graphic due to relatively low magnitude and confidence.


Snell