US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Fri Aug 02 2019
 
Valid Monday August 05 2019 - Friday August 09 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central/Southern Plains, the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, 
the Tennessee Valley, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Fri, Aug 5-Aug 9.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi 
Valley, and the Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 
Southern Plains.
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Aug 5-Aug 6.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Tue, Aug 5-Aug 6.
 
Detailed Summary:

A persistent upper-level ridge will shift slightly eastward over the next week from the Four 
Corners region to the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, a couple of surface fronts are forecast to move 
southward through the central U.S. and eastward through the eastern U.S. Moisture flowing into the 
central U.S. combining with the fronts could lead to periods of heavy rainfall. It currently 
appears that one area of potentially heavy rainfall will move from north to south through the 
Plains and Mississippi Valley for the first half of the week, with another round of rain tracking 
northwest to southeast over much the same area by Thursday and Friday. Much of this region has been 
wet lately, so flooding and flash flooding are possibilities where rainfall is heavy.

Additionally, monsoonal moisture flowing into the Four Corners region could cause locally heavy 
rainfall and localized flooding and flash flooding as showers and thunderstorms continue there. 
Rain is also likely with tropical moisture over the Southeast Atlantic coast and into Florida, but 
may not be considered particularly heavy considering the region.

With the ridge affecting the Southwest to Southern High Plains, hot temperatures a few degrees 
above average are expected. High heat indices are also forecast for southern Texas. The slightly 
warmer than average Northwest early week will switch to below average later in the week as an upper 
trough comes in. However, no areas are expecting significant temperature anomalies.

In Alaska, a front moving through could lead to marginally high winds and heavy rainfall from the 
southwest mainland coast into portions of interior Alaska early in the week. The GFS remains 
farther north with the axis of heavy rainfall than the consensus. The weather looks to quiet down 
for Alaska before another system may move through the Aleutians next weekend.

Active weather is once again possible over Hawaii as Flossie approaches. The current forecast track 
of Flossie from the National Hurricane Center takes the tropical storm north and east of the 
archipelago on Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and high surf are all possible, with 
the magnitudes of those threats depending on the exact track Flossie takes.


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