US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2019
 
Valid Friday August 16 2019 - Tuesday August 20 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Fri-Sat, Aug 
16-Aug 17.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, Fri-Sun, Aug 16-Aug 18.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Southern Plains, Fri-Tue, Aug 16-Aug 20.
- Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri, Aug 16.
 
Detailed Summary:

Relatively quiet in the medium range period in terms of any widespread hazards. A low pressure 
system/associated cold front meander from the Central Plains to the Upper Midwest late this week. 
Showers and thunderstorms are likely along this boundary, with models favoring an area from roughly 
southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas into southern Iowa/northern Missouri for heavy rainfall the 
16th and 17th. To the south, a wavy and stalled boundary across the Southeast is likely to support 
an extended period of showers/storms along it. Models show a signal for a mid-upper level feature 
interacting with the boundary near the northeast Gulf Coast, but there remains uncertainty with how 
much rain may fall as a result. Still though, given the overall setup, there is potential for an 
area of heavy rain, with the best chance at this point pointing to parts of the northeast Gulf 
Coast/northern Florida. 

Temperature wise, a generally warm pattern will persist over the southern tier of the U.S. with 
daytime highs running slightly above average underneath stubborn upper level ridging. The best 
chance for excessive heat will be across parts of south Texas where temperatures and high humidity 
could result in heat indices in excess of 105 degrees. As a result, an excessive heat area was 
added to today's chart for portions of south/southeast Texas spanning the entire period.

For Alaska, a stalled front across the Aleutians should be weakening by the beginning of the medium 
range period (Friday) with the main threat for any hazards expected in the end of the short range 
period. Thus, the high wind/significant wave threats across the Aleutians on yesterday's chart were 
removed for today. A system dropping through interior Alaska later this week may bring a period of 
heavy rain to central and eastern parts of the state, with snow possible in the highest elevations 
of the Alaska range.

Santorelli