US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 PM EDT Fri Aug 16 2019
 
Valid Monday August 19 2019 - Friday August 23 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley, Wed-Fri, Aug 
21-Aug 23.
- Severe weather across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Mon, Aug 
19.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast and the Northern Plains.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Wed-Fri, Aug 21-Aug 23.
- Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, 
Mon-Wed, Aug 19-Aug 21.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Tue-Wed, Aug 20-Aug 21.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Mon - Fri) across CONUS remains relatively quiet in terms of any 
widespread heavy precipitation hazards. Most precipitation across the country should be rather 
scattered in nature with no significant heavy rain threat. The only exception is across portion of 
the Central Plains where there is more confidence in rainfall exceeding 1 inch in 24 hours between 
Wednesday and Friday. A heavy rain area was also considered along the central and eastern Gulf 
Coast, as well as the coastal Carolinas, but confidence wasn't quite high enough. The Storm 
Prediction Center is highlighting the possibility for severe weather across the Northern Plains on 
Monday as a wave of low pressure swings across the region, damaging winds are the main concern.

A generally warm pattern will persist over the southern tier of the U.S. for the first half of the 
period with daytime highs averaging about 10 degrees above normal in some places. There are two 
notable regions for excessive heat threats during the medium range. The first spans across much of 
eastern Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. This is based on heat indices between 105 and 110 
degrees (mainly from eastern Texas into Oklahoma and Arkansas). A cold front will bring cooler and 
more bearable temperatures by Thursday. Farther west across the High Plains, heat indices are not 
expected to be as warm due to lower humidity, but daytime highs near 100 degrees may approach 
record high temperatures in select locations. The heat shifts westward into the Desert Southwest 
Wed-Fri, where daytime highs are forecast to be around 110-115 degrees and overnight lows in the 
upper 80s to near 90. A second excessive heat area was included in this region.

In Alaska, heavy rainfall is possible across parts of the southern Panhandle region Tues-Wed as a 
strengthening low pressure system approaches. Uncertainty exists on how strong the system will be, 
but there is confidence in abundant moisture entering the region. Rainfall will be much needed here 
as severe drought conditions exist. 

Snell