US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2019
 
Valid Thursday August 22 2019 - Monday August 26 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee 
Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Thu-Fri, Aug 
22-Aug 23.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Central Plains, the Southeast, and the 
Northern Plains.
- Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
- Excessive heat across portions of California and the Southwest, Thu, Aug 22.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle, Thu-Sat, Aug 22-Aug 24.
 
Detailed Summary:

The medium range period (Thursday-Monday) across CONUS remains relatively quiet in terms of any 
widespread heavy precipitation hazards. A cold front is forecast to stretch from the Central Plains 
to the Northeast on Thursday and push slowly south and east by Monday. Meanwhile, a separate cold 
front will enter the Northern Plains on Sunday and push into the Upper Midwest by Monday. The first 
frontal system will have the best chance to produce heavy rain across the Middle Mississippi and 
Lower Ohio valleys on Thursday and Friday, with rainfall amounts around 1 to 3 inches. Showers and 
thunderstorms will also be likely across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast by Friday and specifically 
across the Southeast this weekend, but confidence was not high enough to add a highlighted area to 
the hazards map. As the next piece of energy and associated cold front reaches the Northern Plains 
on Sunday, thunderstorms and heavy rain will be possible stretching into the Upper Midwest. 
Confidence is fairly low on where exactly the heaviest rainfall will occur, therefore no heavy rain 
area was included here for today's graphic. 

The previously mentioned cold front is forecast keep temperatures from becoming excessively hot 
across the Central and Eastern United States. In fact, high temperatures are forecast to run 
slightly below average across much of the country during this time period. A few places that won't 
escape the heat include southern Texas and the Southwest. Heat indices will reach into the 105-110 
range across south Texas during this time period and actual high temperatures will top out around 
100 degrees. This equates to only around 3 to 4 degrees above average for this time of year. The 
Southwest will see high temperatures slowly decreasing as the weekend approaches, but not before 
high temperatures reach the 110-115 degree range in the Desert Southwest on Thursday.

In Alaska, heavy rainfall is possible from an approaching low pressure system across southeast 
portions of the state from Thursday to Saturday.  Total rainfall amounts will add up to around 3 to 
6 inches over the three days. This area could use the rain, as severe and extreme drought 
conditions exist.

Snell