US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019
 
Valid Monday September 02 2019 - Friday September 06 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon-Tue, Sep 
2-Sep 3.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Fri, Sep 2-Sep 6.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Mon, Sep 2.
- Heavy rain across portions of the Northeast, Wed, Sep 4.
- Severe weather across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the 
Northern Plains, Mon, Sep 2.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Central Plains, the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi 
Valley, and the Southern Plains.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern Plains.
- High winds across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Fri, Sep 2-Sep 6.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Southeast, Mon-Wed, Sep 2-Sep 4.
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon, Sep 2.
- High winds across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Mon, Sep 2.
 
Detailed Summary:

Hurricane Dorian is forecast to affect portions of the Southeastern U.S. with multiple hazards 
during the day 3-7 period. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings the 
system across the northern Bahamas as a major hurricane Sun into Mon, and into the Florida 
Peninsula by Tue. Around the same time, the system is forecast to make a sharp turn toward the 
northwest potentially moving across the Southeast U.S. coastal plain through mid to late next week. 
Heavy rainfall is expected across a wide area next week in association with Dorian, from much of 
Florida northward across portions of the Southeast. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches are 
possible, with isolated/localized amounts as high as 18 inches possible. This rainfall may cause 
life-threatening flash floods. High winds will also be possible across much of the Florida 
Peninsula and northward along the Southeast U.S. coast Mon through much of next week, especially 
close to the track of Dorian. Additionally, a threat for significant waves/storm surge will exist 
along the Florida east coast, possibly northward along the Georgia coast Mon-Wed. Some degree of 
uncertainty remains with respect to the track and speed of Dorian, so the locations and/or timing 
of these hazards are subject to change.

Farther north, a cold front crossing the Northeast late Mon into early Tue may produce localized 
heavy rainfall. Another low pressure system is forecast to cross the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest 
Mon-Tue and the Northeast on Wed. This system could produce severe weather across portions of the 
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Mon, and heavy rain from portions of the Upper Midwest to the 
Great Lakes Mon-Tue. As the system moves east, heavy rain is possible across portions of northern 
Maine on Thu.

For Alaska, a relatively deep low pressure system is expected to be moving across the eastern 
Bering Sea and western mainland Alaska on Mon. The system is expected to produce heavy rains across 
portions of the Kenai Peninsula and the Chugach Mountains on Mon, with 2-3 inches of rain possible 
for some areas. Additionally, high winds associated with the system will be possible across 
portions of the Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula.

Ryan