US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019
 
Valid Thursday September 05 2019 - Monday September 09 2019
 
Hazards:
- Heavy rain across coastal regions of the Southeast and the lower Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Fri, Sep 5-Sep 
6.
- Heavy rain across coastal regions of the Northeast, Fri, Sep 6.
- Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the lower Mid-Atlantic.
- Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Northern 
Plains.
- High winds across eastern portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Fri, Sep 5-Sep 6.
- High winds across coastal regions of the Northeast, Fri, Sep 6.
- Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southeast, 
Fri-Sun, Sep 6-Sep 8.
- High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the 
Northeast, Thu-Fri, Sep 5-Sep 6.
- Heavy rain across portions of mainland Alaska, Fri-Sat, Sep 6-Sep 7.
 
Detailed Summary:

The biggest threat in the medium range period (Thursday-Monday) continues to be Hurricane Dorian 
which is forecast to to affect much of the East coast with heavy rainfall, high winds, and high 
surf. By Thursday, the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings the center 
of the storm very close to the Carolina coasts, and racing northward by Friday up the Northeast 
Coast. As much as 5 to 10 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, is expected along the 
coastal Carolinas, with lesser amounts as you go northward up the coast. Given the forecast 
maintains Dorian as a Hurricane as it travels up the Southeast coast, tropical storm force wind 
speeds are likely to extend into eastern parts of the Carolinas as well as southeast Virginia. As 
Dorian races northward towards the Canadian Maritimes Friday into Saturday (likely beginning an 
extratropical transition), heavy rainfall and high winds may also clip far eastern portions of 
southern New England, mainly Cape Cod. It's important to note though, the eventual track of 
Hurricane Dorian remains highly uncertain and even a slight displacement towards the west would 
place the core of the storm closer to the coast and thus significant impacts extending farther 
inland than currently advertised. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest 
information regarding Dorian.

Elsewhere across the CONUS, upper ridging across the Southern tier will remain anchored in place 
through most of the period resulting in above normal temperatures across much of the south. The 
highest anomalies (around 10 to 15 degrees above normal), will be centered from roughly far east 
Texas to southern Alabama. Combined humidity may bring heat indices up to around 105F, which would 
be marginal for an excessive heat area, so opted to just use much above normal temperatures to 
cover that region at this time.

In Alaska, a cyclone in the Bering Sea will push a front through eastern parts of the Aleutians and 
western mainland region Friday and Saturday. This may result in heavy rainfall across this region 
and into some of the higher terrain of southern Alaska mainland as well.

Santorelli