US Day 3-7 Hazards Outlook NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 324 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Valid Friday September 06 2019 - Tuesday September 10 2019 Hazards: - Heavy rain across portions of the Southeast, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast, Fri-Sun, Sep 6-Sep 8. - Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic. - Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Northern/Central Plains, and the Middle Mississippi Valley. - Flooding likely across portions of the Southeast. - High winds across portions of the Northeast, Fri, Sep 6. - High winds across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Sat, Sep 6-Sep 7. - Much above normal temperatures across portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and the Southern Plains, Fri-Sun, Sep 6-Sep 8. - High significant wave heights for coastal portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast, Fri-Sat, Sep 6-Sep 7. - Heavy precipitation across portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Fri-Sat, Sep 6-Sep 7. Detailed Summary: Hurricane Dorian continues to be the biggest threat to the United States from Friday into Tuesday. The storm is forecast to affect much of the East Coast with heavy rainfall, high winds, storm surge, and high surf. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center brings the center of the storm very close to the Carolina coast, and racing northeastward on Friday parallel to the Northeast Coast with the storm's center remaining well off shore. Dorian's storm total precipitation will be 6 to 10 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, is expected along the Coastal Carolinas, with amounts dropping off quickly as you go northward up the coast into the Northern Mid-Atlantic Coast. Dorian is forecast to continue as a hurricane as the storm moves northeastward away from the coast on Friday with tropical storm force wind speeds to remain over eastern portions of the Carolinas on Friday. Dorian is forecast to become extra-tropical as the storm races northeastward towards the Canadian Maritimes Saturday into Sunday, heavy rainfall and high winds may also clip far eastern portions of Southern New England, mainly Cape Cod. It's important to note though, the eventual track of Hurricane Dorian remains highly uncertain and even a slight displacement towards the west would place the core of the storm closer to the coast and thus significant impacts extending farther inland than currently advertised. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding Dorian. On Monday, a storm over the Northern High Plains is forecast to move eastward across the Northern Tier States to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Rain associated with the system may produce an inch of rain over the area in which the storm tracks but the uncertainty in the models is too great to place an area of heavy rain over the area at this time. In addition, upper-level ridging will continue across the Western and Central Gulf Coast States resulting in above normal temperatures across much of the south. The highest anomalies (around 10 to 15 degrees above normal), will be centered from roughly far eastern Texas to southern Alabama/western Florida. Combined humidity may bring heat indices up to around 105F, which would be marginal for an excessive heat area, so opted to just use much above normal temperatures to cover that region at this time. In Alaska, a cyclone in the Bering Sea will push a front through eastern parts of the Aleutians and western mainland region Friday and Saturday. This may result in heavy rainfall across this region and into some of the higher terrain of southern Alaska mainland as well. Ziegenfelder